Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Missouri State at Kennesaw State, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Kennesaw State beat Missouri State 41–34, but the replays lean toward Missouri State: it takes 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 22 points of win probability to Kennesaw State.
Kennesaw State won on an off day: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Missouri State it would win 66% of the time; with this day’s form, 23%. The numbers
Before kickoff Kennesaw State was a 66% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:07 left): Missouri State was stopped on 4th & 10, worth 17 points of win probability to Kennesaw State.
Final
 Missouri State Bears | 34 |
|---|---|
 Kennesaw State Owls | 41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +77 Kennesaw State very lucky · −77 Missouri State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Missouri State wins 8, Kennesaw State wins 2.
- 1 MOST 55 KENN 17
- 2 MOST 59 KENN 30
- 3 MOST 41 KENN 17
- 4 MOST 36 KENN 17
- 5 MOST 44 KENN 28
- 6 MOST 40 KENN 30
- 7 MOST 38 KENN 31
- 8 MOST 41 KENN 38
- 9 MOST 28 KENN 31
- 10 MOST 21 KENN 37
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Kennesaw State won on an off day
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Missouri State it would win 66% of the time; with this day’s form, 23%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
44 points apart for Kennesaw State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.21 | +0.07 | better by 0.14 |
| Missouri State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.32 | +0.06 | worse by 0.27 |
| Kennesaw State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.32 | −0.01 | better by 0.33 |
| Kennesaw State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.21 | +0.02 | worse by 0.19 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Missouri State wins 77% of them, Kennesaw State 23%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Kennesaw State by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Missouri State by 17+ | 39.3% |
| Missouri State by 9–16 | 18.4% |
| Missouri State by 1–8 | 16.7% |
| Level after regulation | 3.3% |
| Kennesaw State by 1–8 | 11.8% |
| Kennesaw State by 9–16 | 5.8% |
| Kennesaw State by 17+ | 4.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- Y. Obeid, 43 yds made · 68% expected
- Y. Obeid, 44 yds made · 66% expected
- D. Kinney, 29 yds missed · 89% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Missouri State 8 for 58 yards, Kennesaw State 9 for 98 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:54 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards | +3% MOST +1.3 pts |
| Q1 12:45 | False Start on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% KENN +0.9 pts |
| Q1 12:31 | False Start on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KENN +0.3 pts |
| Q1 7:23 | False Start on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% KENN +1.2 pts |
| Q1 7:03 | Pass Interference on Kennesaw State, 13 yards | +5% MOST +2.8 pts |
| Q1 2:46 | False Start on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MOST +0.7 pts |
| Q2 9:04 | Offside on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MOST +0.9 pts |
| Q2 8:15 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards | +2% MOST +1.3 pts |
| Q2 3:09 | Horse Collar Tackle on Missouri State, 8 yards | +1% KENN +0.9 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Personal Foul on Kennesaw State, 15 yards | +1% MOST +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:56 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards | +1% MOST +0.4 pts |
| Q3 5:13 | Ineligible Downfield on Missouri State, 5 yards | +1% KENN +0.3 pts |
| Q3 4:27 | False Start on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% KENN +0.7 pts |
| Q4 14:49 | Kick Catch Interference on Kennesaw State, 15 yards | +4% MOST +0.9 pts |
| Q4 14:36 | Holding on Missouri State, 10 yards | +6% KENN +1.3 pts |
| Q4 12:11 | Pass Interference on Missouri State, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +7% KENN +1.7 pts |
| Q4 0:07 | Personal Foul on Kennesaw State, 15 yards | +3% MOST +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Kennesaw State’s chance of winning
As low as 30% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 7:55 | Kennesaw State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +7% MOST | KENN: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 7:13 | Kennesaw State converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +6% KENN | KENN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 14:36 | Holding on Missouri State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +6% KENN | KENN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 12:11 | Pass Interference on Missouri State, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +7% KENN | KENN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 9:57 | Kennesaw State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +9% KENN | KENN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 4:20 | Kennesaw State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +13% KENN | KENN: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 3:51 | Kennesaw State was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +9% MOST | KENN: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 1:07 | Missouri State was stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +17% KENN | MOST: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Missouri State 13% · Kennesaw State 87%
- Final margin
- Kennesaw State by 7
- Luck in points
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kennesaw State by 7.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Missouri State 77% · Kennesaw State 23% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Missouri State · 
Kennesaw State
More from Week 13 2025
- Jacksonville State at Florida International FIU 27–21 · replay 42% for the winner
- Liberty at Louisiana Tech LT 34–28 · replay 45% for the winner
- New Mexico State at UTEP NMSU 34–31 · replay 53% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at LSU LSU 13–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee MTSU 31–17 · replay 81% for the winner
- Delaware at Wake Forest WAKE 52–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner
- Utah State at Fresno State USU 28–17 · replay 30% for the winner