Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Middle Tennessee beat Sam Houston 31–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Middle Tennessee wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Middle Tennessee was a 66% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:45 left): Pass Interference on Middle Tennessee, 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 18 points of win probability to Sam Houston.
Final
 Sam Houston Bearkats | 17 |
|---|---|
 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +19 Middle Tennessee about even · −19 Sam Houston
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sam Houston wins 2, Middle Tennessee wins 8.
- 1 SHSU 38 MTSU 24
- 2 SHSU 24 MTSU 20
- 3 SHSU 21 MTSU 24
- 4 SHSU 14 MTSU 21
- 5 SHSU 28 MTSU 38
- 6 SHSU 20 MTSU 34
- 7 SHSU 14 MTSU 31
- 8 SHSU 13 MTSU 34
- 9 SHSU 3 MTSU 28
- 10 SHSU 6 MTSU 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Sam Houston wins 19% of them, Middle Tennessee 81%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Middle Tennessee by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sam Houston by 17+ | 2.7% |
| Sam Houston by 9–16 | 5.8% |
| Sam Houston by 1–8 | 10.2% |
| Level after regulation | 1.5% |
| Middle Tennessee by 1–8 | 21.5% |
| Middle Tennessee by 9–16 | 18.1% |
| Middle Tennessee by 17+ | 40.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Pavon, 38 yds made · 71% expected
- J. Hathaway, 27 yds made · 90% expected
- J. Hathaway, 48 yds missed · 59% expected
Penalties: Sam Houston 3 for 45 yards, Middle Tennessee 5 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:04 | Targeting on Middle Tennessee, 15 yards | +3% SHSU +1.6 pts |
| Q1 10:27 | Pass Interference on Sam Houston, 15 yards | +2% MTSU +1.0 pts |
| Q1 5:14 | False Start on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SHSU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 3:44 | Offside on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SHSU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 5:45 | Pass Interference on Middle Tennessee, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +18% SHSU +6.8 pts |
| Q3 12:31 | Pass Interference on Sam Houston, 15 yards | +2% MTSU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 8:09 | Face Mask on Sam Houston, 15 yards | +5% MTSU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 0:45 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Middle Tennessee, 15 yards | 0% SHSU +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Middle Tennessee’s chance of winning
As low as 32% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:04 | C. Pavon made a 38-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him | +7% MTSU | SHSU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 0:26 | Sam Houston was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +5% MTSU | SHSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 5:45 | Pass Interference on Middle Tennessee, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +18% SHSU | SHSU: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 0:52 | Middle Tennessee fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% MTSU | MTSU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 0:38 | Middle Tennessee converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +7% MTSU | MTSU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 10:13 | J. Hathaway missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 3 of 4 from 45+ before | +7% SHSU | MTSU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 8:09 | Face Mask on Sam Houston, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% MTSU | MTSU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 1:05 | Sam Houston converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +6% SHSU | SHSU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sam Houston 5% · Middle Tennessee 95%
- Final margin
- Middle Tennessee by 14
- Luck in points
- 3.3 for Middle Tennessee
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Middle Tennessee by 10.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Sam Houston 19% · Middle Tennessee 81% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Sam Houston · 
Middle Tennessee
More from Week 13 2025
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at Florida International FIU 27–21 · replay 42% for the winner
- Liberty at Louisiana Tech LT 34–28 · replay 45% for the winner
- New Mexico State at UTEP NMSU 34–31 · replay 53% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at LSU LSU 13–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- Delaware at Wake Forest WAKE 52–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner
- Utah State at Fresno State USU 28–17 · replay 30% for the winner