luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

2025 college football season · November 18, 2025–November 22, 2025

Week 13 2025: upsets, and who deserved to win

14 upsets in Week 13 2025. The biggest: Tulsa beat Army 26–25 as 26% underdogs, a coin flip on the day. 8 of 64 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: Louisiana beat Arkansas State 34–30 in a game it wins 16% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Week 13 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 7 of 14 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form (our postgame win expectancy).

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Tulsa 26–25 @ Army 26% 55% Coin flip
Wisconsin 27–10 vs Illinois 29% 67% Deserved
NC State 21–11 vs Florida State 33% 18% Lucky
Nevada 13–7 @ Wyoming 35% 85% Deserved
Stanford 31–10 vs California 39% 96% Deserved
App State 26–24 vs Marshall 40% 13% Lucky
New Mexico State 34–31 @ UTEP 40% 53% Coin flip
Akron 19–16 @ Bowling Green 44% 64% Deserved
Louisiana 34–30 @ Arkansas State 44% 16% Lucky
South Alabama 42–35 vs Southern Miss 44% 71% Deserved
Pittsburgh 42–28 @ Georgia Tech 44% 80% Deserved
Louisiana Tech 34–28 vs Liberty 46% 45% Coin flip
UTSA 58–24 vs East Carolina 46% 99% Deserved
Utah State 28–17 @ Fresno State 46% 30% Lucky

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 13 luck ranking

Every FBS team’s luck index: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 App State W 26–24 vs Marshall 13% +87
2 Duke W 32–25 @ North Carolina 13% +87
3 Louisiana W 34–30 @ Arkansas State 16% +84
4 NC State W 21–11 vs Florida State 18% +82
5 Kennesaw State W 41–34 vs Missouri State 23% +77
6 UConn W 48–45 @ Florida Atlantic 25% +75
7 Utah State W 28–17 @ Fresno State 30% +70
8 BYU W 26–14 @ Cincinnati 36% +64
9 Florida International W 27–21 vs Jacksonville State 42% +58
10 Louisiana Tech W 34–28 vs Liberty 45% +55
11 Troy W 31–19 vs Georgia State 45% +55
12 Oklahoma W 17–6 vs Missouri 46% +54
13 Iowa State W 38–14 vs Kansas 49% +51
14 Utah W 51–47 vs Kansas State 52% +48
15 New Mexico State W 34–31 @ UTEP 53% +47
16 Tulsa W 26–25 @ Army 55% +45
17 Miami W 34–17 @ Virginia Tech 61% +39
18 Iowa W 20–17 vs Michigan State 62% +38
19 Akron W 19–16 @ Bowling Green 64% +36
20 Central Michigan W 28–16 @ Kent State 65% +35
21 Northwestern W 38–35 vs Minnesota 66% +34
22 Wisconsin W 27–10 vs Illinois 67% +33
23 South Alabama W 42–35 vs Southern Miss 71% +29
24 LSU W 13–10 vs Western Kentucky 75% +25
25 TCU W 17–14 @ Houston 75% +25
26 San Diego State W 25–3 vs San José State 77% +23
27 Pittsburgh W 42–28 @ Georgia Tech 80% +20
28 Miami (OH) W 37–20 @ Buffalo 80% +20
29 Middle Tennessee W 31–17 vs Sam Houston 81% +19
30 Texas State W 31–14 vs UL Monroe 82% +18
31 Nevada W 13–7 @ Wyoming 85% +15
32 Tennessee W 31–11 @ Florida 88% +12
33 James Madison W 24–20 vs Washington State 89% +11
34 New Mexico W 20–3 @ Air Force 90% +10
35 UCF W 17–14 vs Oklahoma State 92% +8
36 Michigan W 45–20 @ Maryland 93% +7
37 SMU W 38–6 vs Louisville 93% +7
38 Tulane W 37–13 @ Temple 93% +7
39 Oregon W 42–27 vs USC 94% +6
40 Texas W 52–37 vs Arkansas 94% +6
41 South Florida W 48–18 @ UAB 95% +5
42 Stanford W 31–10 vs California 96% +4
43 Arizona W 41–17 vs Baylor 96% +4
44 Boise State W 49–21 vs Colorado State 96% +4
45 Ohio W 42–14 vs Massachusetts 97% +3
46 Auburn W 62–17 vs Mercer 97% +3
47 Arizona State W 42–17 @ Colorado 98% +2
48 Vanderbilt W 45–17 vs Kentucky 99% +1
49 Old Dominion W 45–10 @ Georgia Southern 99% +1
50 UTSA W 58–24 vs East Carolina 99% +1
51 UNLV W 38–10 vs Hawai'i 99% +1
52 Clemson W 45–10 vs Furman 100% 0
53 North Texas W 56–24 @ Rice 100% 0
54 Wake Forest W 52–14 vs Delaware 100% 0
55 Notre Dame W 70–7 vs Syracuse 100% 0
56 Western Michigan W 35–19 @ Northern Illinois 100% 0
57 Washington W 48–14 @ UCLA 100% 0
58 Ohio State W 42–9 vs Rutgers 100% 0
59 Texas A&M W 48–0 vs Samford 100% 0
60 Georgia W 35–3 vs Charlotte 100% 0
61 Alabama W 56–0 vs Eastern Illinois 100% 0
62 Toledo W 38–9 vs Ball State 100% 0
63 South Carolina W 51–7 vs Coastal Carolina 100% 0
64 Penn State W 37–10 vs Nebraska 100% 0
65 Charlotte L 3–35 @ Georgia 0% 0
66 Ball State L 9–38 @ Toledo 0% 0
67 Coastal Carolina L 7–51 @ South Carolina 0% 0
68 Nebraska L 10–37 @ Penn State 0% 0
69 Rutgers L 9–42 @ Ohio State 0% 0
70 Northern Illinois L 19–35 vs Western Michigan 0% 0
71 UCLA L 14–48 vs Washington 0% 0
72 Syracuse L 7–70 @ Notre Dame 0% 0
73 Delaware L 14–52 @ Wake Forest 0% 0
74 Rice L 24–56 vs North Texas 0% 0
75 Hawai'i L 10–38 @ UNLV 1% −1
76 East Carolina L 24–58 @ UTSA 1% −1
77 Georgia Southern L 10–45 vs Old Dominion 1% −1
78 Kentucky L 17–45 @ Vanderbilt 1% −1
79 Colorado L 17–42 vs Arizona State 2% −2
80 Massachusetts L 14–42 @ Ohio 3% −3
81 Colorado State L 21–49 @ Boise State 4% −4
82 Baylor L 17–41 @ Arizona 4% −4
83 California L 10–31 @ Stanford 4% −4
84 UAB L 18–48 vs South Florida 5% −5
85 Arkansas L 37–52 @ Texas 6% −6
86 USC L 27–42 @ Oregon 6% −6
87 Temple L 13–37 vs Tulane 7% −7
88 Louisville L 6–38 @ SMU 7% −7
89 Maryland L 20–45 vs Michigan 7% −7
90 Oklahoma State L 14–17 @ UCF 8% −8
91 Air Force L 3–20 vs New Mexico 10% −10
92 Washington State L 20–24 @ James Madison 11% −11
93 Florida L 11–31 vs Tennessee 12% −12
94 Wyoming L 7–13 vs Nevada 15% −15
95 UL Monroe L 14–31 @ Texas State 18% −18
96 Sam Houston L 17–31 @ Middle Tennessee 19% −19
97 Buffalo L 20–37 vs Miami (OH) 20% −20
98 Georgia Tech L 28–42 vs Pittsburgh 20% −20
99 San José State L 3–25 @ San Diego State 23% −23
100 Houston L 14–17 vs TCU 25% −25
101 Western Kentucky L 10–13 @ LSU 25% −25
102 Southern Miss L 35–42 @ South Alabama 29% −29
103 Illinois L 10–27 @ Wisconsin 33% −33
104 Minnesota L 35–38 vs Northwestern 34% −34
105 Kent State L 16–28 vs Central Michigan 35% −35
106 Bowling Green L 16–19 vs Akron 36% −36
107 Michigan State L 17–20 @ Iowa 38% −38
108 Virginia Tech L 17–34 vs Miami 39% −39
109 Army L 25–26 vs Tulsa 45% −45
110 UTEP L 31–34 vs New Mexico State 47% −47
111 Kansas State L 47–51 @ Utah 48% −48
112 Kansas L 14–38 @ Iowa State 51% −51
113 Missouri L 6–17 @ Oklahoma 54% −54
114 Georgia State L 19–31 @ Troy 55% −55
115 Liberty L 28–34 @ Louisiana Tech 55% −55
116 Jacksonville State L 21–27 @ Florida International 58% −58
117 Cincinnati L 14–26 vs BYU 64% −64
118 Fresno State L 17–28 vs Utah State 70% −70
119 Florida Atlantic L 45–48 vs UConn 75% −75
120 Missouri State L 34–41 @ Kennesaw State 77% −77
121 Florida State L 11–21 @ NC State 82% −82
122 Arkansas State L 30–34 vs Louisiana 84% −84
123 North Carolina L 25–32 vs Duke 87% −87
124 Marshall L 24–26 @ App State 87% −87