Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Michigan at Maryland, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Michigan beat Maryland 45–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Michigan wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Michigan was an 82% favorite.
Final
 Michigan Wolverines | 45 |
|---|---|
 Maryland Terrapins | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Michigan about even · −7 Maryland
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Michigan wins 9, Maryland wins 1.
- 1 MICH 48 MD 10
- 2 MICH 42 MD 10
- 3 MICH 34 MD 7
- 4 MICH 44 MD 21
- 5 MICH 27 MD 7
- 6 MICH 37 MD 21
- 7 MICH 41 MD 28
- 8 MICH 34 MD 24
- 9 MICH 22 MD 17
- 10 MICH 10 MD 14
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Michigan wins 93% of them, Maryland 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Michigan by 25.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Michigan by 17+ | 57.1% |
| Michigan by 9–16 | 20.8% |
| Michigan by 1–8 | 14.2% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Maryland by 1–8 | 5.2% |
| Maryland by 9–16 | 1.5% |
| Maryland by 17+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. O'Haire, 34 yds made · 84% expected
- D. Zvada, 38 yds missed · 79% expected
- S. O'Haire, 29 yds made · 90% expected
- D. Zvada, 46 yds made · 64% expected
Penalties: Michigan 4 for 30 yards, Maryland 4 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:33 | Offside on Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MD +0.9 pts |
| Q1 4:37 | False Start on Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MD +0.7 pts |
| Q2 13:37 | False Start on Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MD +0.3 pts |
| Q2 9:03 | False Start on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MICH +0.8 pts |
| Q3 11:03 | Roughing the Passer on Michigan, 15 yards | +1% MD +3.3 pts |
| Q3 6:16 | Roughing the Passer on Maryland, 15 yards | 0% MICH +1.8 pts |
| Q3 5:03 | Offside on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MICH +1.1 pts |
| Q3 0:50 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Maryland, 15 yards | 0% MICH +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Maryland’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:43 | Maryland converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +4% MD | MD: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 10:55 | Maryland was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +3% MICH | MD: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 7:05 | Michigan converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +4% MICH | MICH: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 5:24 | Maryland was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +2% MICH | MD: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 3:42 | Michigan converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +2% MICH | MICH: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 12:28 | Michigan converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +2% MICH | MICH: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q2 10:33 | Maryland converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +2% MD | MD: Field goal |
| 8 | Q2 1:53 | D. Zvada missed a 38-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him | +2% MD | MICH: End of half |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Michigan 100% · Maryland 0%
- Final margin
- Michigan by 25
- Luck in points
- 4.7 for Michigan
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Michigan by 20.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Michigan 93% · Maryland 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Michigan · 
Maryland
More from Week 13 2025
- Michigan State at Iowa IOWA 20–17 · replay 62% for the winner
- Minnesota vs Northwestern NU 38–35 · replay 66% for the winner
- Illinois at Wisconsin WIS 27–10 · replay 67% for the winner
- USC at Oregon ORE 42–27 · replay 94% for the winner
- Washington at UCLA WASH 48–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Rutgers at Ohio State OSU 42–9 · replay 100% for the winner
- Nebraska at Penn State PSU 37–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner