Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Michigan State at Iowa, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Iowa beat Michigan State 20–17, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10. Michigan State had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 10 points of win probability to Michigan State.
Before kickoff Iowa was an 87% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:13 left): Michigan State converted 3rd & 5, worth 9 points of win probability to Michigan State.
Final
 Michigan State Spartans | 17 |
|---|---|
 Iowa Hawkeyes | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 Iowa lucky · −38 Michigan State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Michigan State wins 4, Iowa wins 6.
- 1 MSU 34 IOWA 12
- 2 MSU 20 IOWA 7
- 3 MSU 28 IOWA 21
- 4 MSU 17 IOWA 14
- 5 MSU 17 IOWA 20
- 6 MSU 7 IOWA 13
- 7 MSU 20 IOWA 29
- 8 MSU 17 IOWA 31
- 9 MSU 3 IOWA 23
- 10 MSU 3 IOWA 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Michigan State wins 38% of them, Iowa 62%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Iowa by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Michigan State by 17+ | 7.4% |
| Michigan State by 9–16 | 11.4% |
| Michigan State by 1–8 | 17.4% |
| Level after regulation | 3.9% |
| Iowa by 1–8 | 19.9% |
| Iowa by 9–16 | 19.5% |
| Iowa by 17+ | 20.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Connington, 27 yds made · 88% expected
- D. Stevens, 53 yds missed · 51% expected
- D. Stevens, 26 yds made · 93% expected
- D. Stevens, 44 yds made · 67% expected
Penalties: Michigan State 1 for 10 yards, Iowa 4 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:42 | Delay of Game on Iowa, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MSU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 7:54 | Roughing the Passer on Iowa, 15 yards | +2% MSU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 10:10 | Holding on Michigan State, 10 yards | +2% IOWA +0.9 pts |
| Q3 8:58 | Roughing the Kicker on Iowa, 15 yards | +4% MSU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 3:07 | Delay of Game on Iowa, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MSU +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Iowa’s chance of winning
As low as 5% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:38 | Return touchdown by IowaSpecial teams | +5% IOWA | IOWA: Turnover |
| 2 | Q3 5:28 | Michigan State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +6% MSU | MSU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 1:13 | Michigan State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +9% MSU | MSU: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 10:08 | Michigan State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +7% IOWA | MSU: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 7:27 | Michigan State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +4% IOWA | MSU: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 4:23 | Iowa was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +8% MSU | IOWA: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 3:45 | Iowa was stopped on 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +5% MSU | IOWA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:47 | Michigan State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +4% IOWA | MSU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Michigan State 5% · Iowa 95%
- Final margin
- Iowa by 3
- Luck in points
- 7.2 for Michigan State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Iowa by 10.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Michigan State 38% · Iowa 62% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Michigan State · 
Iowa
More from Week 13 2025
- Minnesota vs Northwestern NU 38–35 · replay 66% for the winner
- Illinois at Wisconsin WIS 27–10 · replay 67% for the winner
- Michigan at Maryland MICH 45–20 · replay 93% for the winner
- USC at Oregon ORE 42–27 · replay 94% for the winner
- Washington at UCLA WASH 48–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Rutgers at Ohio State OSU 42–9 · replay 100% for the winner
- Nebraska at Penn State PSU 37–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner