Big Ten · 2026 season, in progress

Michigan State Spartans: luck and expected wins

Michigan State is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.0 wins. Luck cost 0.0: the 60th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.

2026, game by game

How often Michigan State wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Toledo	W 30–20	49%	+51
Week 2	vs Eastern Michigan	W 35–7	97%	+3
Week 3	@ Notre Dame	L 10–27	4%	−4
Week 4	vs Nebraska	L 13–31	52%	−52

Wk 1 +51 vs TOL

Wk 2 +3 vs EMU

Wk 3 −4 @ ND

Wk 4 −52 vs NEB

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Michigan State win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	at Wisconsin	Wisconsin by 7.0	33%
Week 6 · Oct 10	vs Illinois	Illinois by 2.1	45%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs Northwestern	Northwestern by 4.3	40%
Week 8 · Oct 24	at UCLA	UCLA by 12.0	23%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at Michigan	Michigan by 9.3	29%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs Washington	Michigan State by 0.5	51%
Week 12 · Nov 20	vs Oregon	Oregon by 11.3	25%
Week 13 · Nov 28	at Rutgers	Michigan State by 4.1	59%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Michigan State’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Pre-snap flags	+0.14	+8.4
3rd & 4th downs	+0.12	+14.2
Kicks	+0.08	+11.5

Luckiest wins

Wins Michigan State takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 2	vs Boston College	W 42–40	8%	+92
2026 Week 1	vs Toledo	W 30–20	49%	+51
2025 Week 14	vs Maryland	W 38–28	55%	+45
2025 Week 1	vs Western Michigan	W 23–6	91%	+9
2025 Week 3	vs Youngstown State	W 41–24	96%	+4

Unluckiest losses

Losses Michigan State would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 10	@ Minnesota	L 20–23	59%	−59
2026 Week 4	vs Nebraska	L 13–31	52%	−52
2025 Week 13	@ Iowa	L 17–20	38%	−38
2025 Week 6	@ Nebraska	L 27–38	21%	−21
2025 Week 4	@ USC	L 31–45	11%	−11

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	4–8	4.0	0.0	1–2	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Western Michigan	W 23–6	91%	+9
Week 2	vs Boston College	W 42–40	8%	+92
Week 3	vs Youngstown State	W 41–24	96%	+4
Week 4	@ USC	L 31–45	11%	−11
Week 6	@ Nebraska	L 27–38	21%	−21
Week 7	vs UCLA	L 13–38	4%	−4
Week 8	@ Indiana	L 13–38	0%	0
Week 9	vs Michigan	L 20–31	7%	−7
Week 10	@ Minnesota	L 20–23	59%	−59
Week 12	vs Penn State	L 10–28	5%	−5
Week 13	@ Iowa	L 17–20	38%	−38
Week 14	vs Maryland	W 38–28	55%	+45