luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025

Penn State at Michigan State, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

Penn State beat Michigan State 28–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Penn State wins 9 of 10.

Before kickoff Penn State was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 13:27 left): Penn State was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 12 points of win probability to Michigan State.

Final

Penn State Nittany Lions 28
Michigan State Spartans 10

November 15, 2025 · Spartan Stadium · Closing line: Penn State −7

Luck index +5 Penn State about even · −5 Michigan State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Penn State wins 9, Michigan State wins 1.

  1. 1 PSU 44 MSU 0
  2. 2 PSU 39 MSU 3
  3. 3 PSU 44 MSU 13
  4. 4 PSU 30 MSU 3
  5. 5 PSU 33 MSU 10
  6. 6 PSU 29 MSU 10
  7. 7 PSU 19 MSU 3
  8. 8 PSU 11 MSU 0
  9. 9 PSU 21 MSU 16
  10. 10 PSU 17 MSU 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Penn State wins 95% of them, Michigan State 5%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Penn State by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Penn State by 17+71.3%
Penn State by 9–1614.2%
Penn State by 1–89.0%
Level after regulation0.7%
Michigan State by 1–83.5%
Michigan State by 9–161.1%
Michigan State by 17+0.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.4 points to Penn State: the final margin was Penn State by 18, without the luck Penn State by 15.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Penn State 3 for 40 yards, Michigan State 2 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:25 Holding on Penn State, 10 yards +1% MSU +0.6 pts
Q3 4:02 Illegal Snap on Michigan State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PSU +0.5 pts
Q4 4:32 Roughing the Passer on Penn State, 15 yards +1% MSU +1.1 pts
Q4 4:32 Roughing the Passer on Penn State, 15 yards +1% MSU +1.6 pts
Q4 2:00 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Michigan State, 15 yards 0% PSU +0.4 pts

When it happened

Michigan State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Michigan State was ahead in it, below while Penn State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:25 Penn State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedHolding on Penn State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +3% MSU PSU: Punt
2 Q1 3:19 Michigan State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +4% PSU MSU: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 1:23 Michigan State was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +6% PSU MSU: Field goal
4 Q2 15:00 Penn State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +3% MSU PSU: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 13:27 Penn State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expectedMichigan State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +12% MSU PSU: Touchdown
6 Q2 1:52 Penn State was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +4% MSU PSU: End of half
7 Q3 15:00 Michigan State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +4% PSU MSU: Punt
8 Q3 8:27 Penn State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +3% MSU PSU: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Penn State 100% · Michigan State 0%

Final margin
Penn State by 18
Luck in points
2.4 for Penn State
Luck-adjusted margin
Penn State by 15.6
Replay with same day's form
Penn State 95% · Michigan State 5% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · Penn State · Michigan State

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