luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

2025 college football season · November 11, 2025–November 15, 2025

Week 12 2025: upsets, and who deserved to win

11 upsets in Week 12 2025. The biggest: Sam Houston beat Delaware 26–23 as 23% underdogs, a coin flip on the day. 5 of 59 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: Clemson beat Louisville 20–19 in a game it wins 19% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Week 12 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 6 of 11 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form (our postgame win expectancy).

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Sam Houston 26–23 vs Delaware 23% 46% Coin flip
Nevada 55–10 vs San José State 26% 99% Deserved
Navy 41–38 vs South Florida 27% 38% Lucky
Kent State 42–35 @ Akron 31% 43% Coin flip
Oklahoma 23–21 @ Alabama 34% 12% Lucky
Arizona 30–24 @ Cincinnati 36% 70% Deserved
Virginia 34–17 @ Duke 36% 96% Deserved
Jacksonville State 35–26 vs Kennesaw State 41% 64% Deserved
Texas State 41–14 @ Southern Miss 42% 97% Deserved
Florida International 34–27 vs Liberty 44% 65% Deserved
Clemson 20–19 @ Louisville 46% 19% Lucky

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 12 luck ranking

Every FBS team’s luck index: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Kansas State W 14–6 @ Oklahoma State 7% +93
2 Oklahoma W 23–21 @ Alabama 12% +88
3 Clemson W 20–19 @ Louisville 19% +81
4 USC W 26–21 vs Iowa 36% +64
5 Navy W 41–38 vs South Florida 38% +62
6 Kent State W 42–35 @ Akron 43% +57
7 Sam Houston W 26–23 vs Delaware 46% +54
8 UConn W 26–16 vs Air Force 55% +45
9 Arizona State W 25–23 vs West Virginia 56% +44
10 New Mexico W 20–17 vs Colorado State 59% +41
11 LSU W 23–22 vs Arkansas 59% +41
12 East Carolina W 31–27 vs Memphis 62% +38
13 Jacksonville State W 35–26 vs Kennesaw State 64% +36
14 Florida International W 34–27 vs Liberty 65% +35
15 UNLV W 29–26 vs Utah State 68% +32
16 Arizona W 30–24 @ Cincinnati 70% +30
17 Georgia Tech W 36–34 @ Boston College 70% +30
18 Ole Miss W 34–24 vs Florida 74% +26
19 Tulane W 35–24 vs Florida Atlantic 76% +24
20 Toledo W 24–3 @ Miami (OH) 82% +18
21 Eastern Michigan W 24–9 @ Ball State 82% +18
22 Georgia Southern W 45–40 vs Coastal Carolina 82% +18
23 San Diego State W 17–7 vs Boise State 83% +17
24 Western Michigan W 17–13 vs Ohio 83% +17
25 Missouri State W 38–24 vs UTEP 85% +15
26 Utah W 55–28 @ Baylor 85% +15
27 Notre Dame W 37–15 @ Pittsburgh 85% +15
28 Texas A&M W 31–30 vs South Carolina 85% +15
29 Central Michigan W 38–19 vs Buffalo 87% +13
30 BYU W 44–13 vs TCU 89% +11
31 Wake Forest W 28–12 vs North Carolina 89% +11
32 Florida State W 34–14 vs Virginia Tech 90% +10
33 South Alabama W 26–14 @ UL Monroe 90% +10
34 Illinois W 24–6 vs Maryland 92% +8
35 North Texas W 53–24 @ UAB 92% +8
36 Western Kentucky W 42–26 vs Middle Tennessee 93% +7
37 Marshall W 30–18 @ Georgia State 93% +7
38 Penn State W 28–10 @ Michigan State 95% +5
39 Fresno State W 24–3 vs Wyoming 96% +4
40 Virginia W 34–17 @ Duke 96% +4
41 Texas State W 41–14 @ Southern Miss 97% +3
42 Kentucky W 42–10 vs Tennessee Tech 97% +3
43 Missouri W 49–27 vs Mississippi State 97% +3
44 UTSA W 28–7 @ Charlotte 98% +2
45 Washington State W 28–3 vs Louisiana Tech 98% +2
46 Georgia W 35–10 vs Texas 98% +2
47 Northern Illinois W 45–3 @ Massachusetts 99% +1
48 Ohio State W 48–10 vs UCLA 99% +1
49 Michigan W 24–22 vs Northwestern 99% +1
50 James Madison W 58–10 vs App State 99% +1
51 Indiana W 31–7 vs Wisconsin 99% +1
52 Nevada W 55–10 vs San José State 99% +1
53 Tennessee W 42–9 vs New Mexico State 100% 0
54 Washington W 49–13 vs Purdue 100% 0
55 Tulsa W 31–14 vs Oregon State 100% 0
56 Old Dominion W 33–0 vs Troy 100% 0
57 Oregon W 42–13 vs Minnesota 100% 0
58 Miami W 41–7 vs NC State 100% 0
59 Texas Tech W 48–9 vs UCF 100% 0
60 Troy L 0–33 @ Old Dominion 0% 0
61 Minnesota L 13–42 @ Oregon 0% 0
62 NC State L 7–41 @ Miami 0% 0
63 UCF L 9–48 @ Texas Tech 0% 0
64 Oregon State L 14–31 @ Tulsa 0% 0
65 Purdue L 13–49 @ Washington 0% 0
66 New Mexico State L 9–42 @ Tennessee 0% 0
67 San José State L 10–55 @ Nevada 1% −1
68 Wisconsin L 7–31 @ Indiana 1% −1
69 App State L 10–58 @ James Madison 1% −1
70 Northwestern L 22–24 vs Michigan 1% −1
71 UCLA L 10–48 @ Ohio State 1% −1
72 Massachusetts L 3–45 vs Northern Illinois 1% −1
73 Texas L 10–35 @ Georgia 2% −2
74 Louisiana Tech L 3–28 @ Washington State 2% −2
75 Charlotte L 7–28 vs UTSA 2% −2
76 Mississippi State L 27–49 @ Missouri 3% −3
77 Southern Miss L 14–41 vs Texas State 3% −3
78 Duke L 17–34 vs Virginia 4% −4
79 Wyoming L 3–24 @ Fresno State 4% −4
80 Michigan State L 10–28 vs Penn State 5% −5
81 Georgia State L 18–30 vs Marshall 7% −7
82 Middle Tennessee L 26–42 @ Western Kentucky 7% −7
83 UAB L 24–53 vs North Texas 8% −8
84 Maryland L 6–24 @ Illinois 8% −8
85 UL Monroe L 14–26 vs South Alabama 10% −10
86 Virginia Tech L 14–34 @ Florida State 10% −10
87 North Carolina L 12–28 @ Wake Forest 11% −11
88 TCU L 13–44 @ BYU 11% −11
89 Buffalo L 19–38 @ Central Michigan 13% −13
90 South Carolina L 30–31 @ Texas A&M 15% −15
91 Pittsburgh L 15–37 vs Notre Dame 15% −15
92 Baylor L 28–55 vs Utah 15% −15
93 UTEP L 24–38 @ Missouri State 15% −15
94 Ohio L 13–17 @ Western Michigan 17% −17
95 Boise State L 7–17 @ San Diego State 17% −17
96 Coastal Carolina L 40–45 @ Georgia Southern 18% −18
97 Ball State L 9–24 vs Eastern Michigan 18% −18
98 Miami (OH) L 3–24 vs Toledo 18% −18
99 Florida Atlantic L 24–35 @ Tulane 24% −24
100 Florida L 24–34 @ Ole Miss 26% −26
101 Boston College L 34–36 vs Georgia Tech 30% −30
102 Cincinnati L 24–30 vs Arizona 30% −30
103 Utah State L 26–29 @ UNLV 32% −32
104 Liberty L 27–34 @ Florida International 35% −35
105 Kennesaw State L 26–35 @ Jacksonville State 36% −36
106 Memphis L 27–31 @ East Carolina 38% −38
107 Arkansas L 22–23 @ LSU 41% −41
108 Colorado State L 17–20 @ New Mexico 41% −41
109 West Virginia L 23–25 @ Arizona State 44% −44
110 Air Force L 16–26 @ UConn 45% −45
111 Delaware L 23–26 vs Sam Houston 54% −54
112 Akron L 35–42 vs Kent State 57% −57
113 South Florida L 38–41 @ Navy 62% −62
114 Iowa L 21–26 @ USC 64% −64
115 Louisville L 19–20 vs Clemson 81% −81
116 Alabama L 21–23 vs Oklahoma 88% −88
117 Oklahoma State L 6–14 vs Kansas State 93% −93