Week 12 2025 · November 11, 2025
Ohio at Western Michigan, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Western Michigan beat Ohio 17–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Western Michigan wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Western Michigan was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 4:13 left): Ohio converted 4th & 3, worth 9 points of win probability to Ohio.
Final
 Ohio Bobcats | 13 |
|---|---|
 Western Michigan Broncos | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Western Michigan about even · −17 Ohio
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ohio wins 2, Western Michigan wins 8.
- 1 OHIO 13 WMU 0
- 2 OHIO 10 WMU 7
- 3 OHIO 13 WMU 16
- 4 OHIO 7 WMU 14
- 5 OHIO 17 WMU 27
- 6 OHIO 17 WMU 30
- 7 OHIO 0 WMU 16
- 8 OHIO 6 WMU 24
- 9 OHIO 10 WMU 33
- 10 OHIO 13 WMU 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ohio wins 17% of them, Western Michigan 83%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Western Michigan by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ohio by 17+ | 1.5% |
| Ohio by 9–16 | 4.2% |
| Ohio by 1–8 | 10.6% |
| Level after regulation | 3.9% |
| Western Michigan by 1–8 | 21.4% |
| Western Michigan by 9–16 | 22.6% |
| Western Michigan by 17+ | 35.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- P. Domschke, 46 yds made · 59% expected
- P. Domschke, 26 yds missed · 88% expected
- P. Domschke, 37 yds missed · 75% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Ohio 3 for 20 yards, Western Michigan 2 for 10 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:25 | Offside on Western Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OHIO +1.6 pts |
| Q1 0:27 | Encroachment on Western Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OHIO +1.1 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | False Start on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WMU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 6:44 | Delay of Game on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WMU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 2:14 | Holding on Ohio, 10 yards | +3% WMU +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Western Michigan’s chance of winning
As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:58 | Ohio converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +5% OHIO | OHIO: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 12:05 | Western Michigan converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +9% WMU | WMU: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q2 8:46 | P. Domschke missed a 26-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him | +9% OHIO | WMU: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q2 3:02 | Western Michigan was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +6% OHIO | WMU: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 4:13 | Ohio converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +9% OHIO | OHIO: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 14:55 | Ohio converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedOhio missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time | +4% WMU | OHIO: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 11:02 | Ohio was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +6% WMU | OHIO: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 0:16 | Western Michigan was stopped on 4th & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +6% OHIO | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ohio 2% · Western Michigan 98%
- Final margin
- Western Michigan by 4
- Luck in points
- 8.5 for Ohio
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Western Michigan by 12.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Ohio 17% · Western Michigan 83% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Ohio · 
Western Michigan
More from Week 12 2025
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner
- Toledo at Miami (OH) TOL 24–3 · replay 82% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Ball State EMU 24–9 · replay 82% for the winner
- Buffalo at Central Michigan CMU 38–19 · replay 87% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Massachusetts NIU 45–3 · replay 99% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Delaware vs Sam Houston SHSU 26–23 · replay 46% for the winner
- Air Force at UConn CONN 26–16 · replay 55% for the winner