Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
Delaware vs Sam Houston, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Sam Houston beat Delaware 26–23, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Sam Houston wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 26 points of win probability to Sam Houston.
Before kickoff Delaware was a 77% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:21 left): N. Reed missed a 36-yard field goal, worth 21 points of win probability to Sam Houston.
Final
 Delaware Blue Hens | 23 |
|---|---|
 Sam Houston Bearkats | 26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +54 Sam Houston lucky · −54 Delaware
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Delaware wins 5, Sam Houston wins 5.
- 1 DEL 52 SHSU 22
- 2 DEL 38 SHSU 20
- 3 DEL 24 SHSU 10
- 4 DEL 35 SHSU 27
- 5 DEL 24 SHSU 21
- 6 DEL 35 SHSU 38
- 7 DEL 23 SHSU 31
- 8 DEL 27 SHSU 41
- 9 DEL 27 SHSU 48
- 10 DEL 21 SHSU 53
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Delaware wins 54% of them, Sam Houston 46%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Sam Houston by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Delaware by 17+ | 19.9% |
| Delaware by 9–16 | 14.1% |
| Delaware by 1–8 | 17.1% |
| Level after regulation | 3.6% |
| Sam Houston by 1–8 | 15.9% |
| Sam Houston by 9–16 | 12.0% |
| Sam Houston by 17+ | 17.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Reed, 37 yds made · 76% expected
- C. Pavon, 33 yds made · 78% expected
- C. Pavon, 48 yds made · 52% expected
- C. Pavon, 23 yds made · 87% expected
- C. Pavon, 48 yds made · 53% expected
- C. Pavon, 40 yds missed · 68% expected
- N. Reed, 36 yds missed · 77% expected
Penalties: Delaware 8 for 81 yards, Sam Houston 7 for 72 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:35 | False Start on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DEL +0.8 pts |
| Q1 5:43 | Horse Collar Tackle on Sam Houston, 8 yards | +1% DEL +1.2 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Roughing the Passer on Sam Houston, 15 yards | +2% DEL +1.6 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Face Mask on Delaware, 15 yards | +1% SHSU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 9:20 | Roughing the Passer on Delaware, 15 yards | +3% SHSU +2.9 pts |
| Q2 9:20 | Holding on Sam Houston, 10 yards | +2% DEL +1.5 pts |
| Q2 9:20 | Offside on Delaware, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SHSU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 4:10 | Pass Interference on Delaware, 12 yards | +4% SHSU +2.1 pts |
| Q2 4:10 | Delay of Game on Delaware, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SHSU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:43 | Personal Foul on Sam Houston, 15 yards | +2% DEL +0.9 pts |
| Q2 1:33 | Holding on Sam Houston, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% SHSU +1.2 pts |
| Q3 7:16 | Targeting on Delaware, 9 yards | +2% SHSU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 0:41 | False Start on Delaware, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SHSU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 13:37 | Intentional Grounding on Sam Houston, 9 yards | +1% DEL +0.6 pts |
| Q4 5:12 | Pass Interference on Delaware, 15 yards | 0% SHSU +1.2 pts |
When it happened
Sam Houston’s chance of winning
As low as 7% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 4:10 | Delaware fumbled and Sam Houston recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Pass Interference on Delaware, 12 yardsJudgment callsDelay of Game on Delaware, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +7% SHSU | DEL: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 15:00 | Sam Houston converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedSam Houston was stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expected | +6% SHSU | SHSU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 11:22 | C. Pavon made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 52% expected for him, 4 of 8 from 45+ before | +7% SHSU | SHSU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 3:52 | Delaware fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50C. Pavon made a 23-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him | +7% DEL | DEL: Turnover |
| 5 | Q3 2:53 | Sam Houston was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedDelaware fumbled and Sam Houston recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% SHSU | SHSU: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 8:47 | Sam Houston converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedSam Houston converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedDelaware’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +10% SHSU | SHSU: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q4 2:36 | Delaware converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +14% DEL | DEL: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:21 | N. Reed missed a 36-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him | +21% SHSU | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Delaware 90% · Sam Houston 10%
- Final margin
- Sam Houston by 3
- Luck in points
- 12.2 for Sam Houston
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Delaware by 9.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Delaware 54% · Sam Houston 46% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Delaware · 
Sam Houston
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