Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
Iowa at USC, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
USC beat Iowa 26–21, but the replays lean toward Iowa: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 10 points of win probability to USC.
Before kickoff USC was a 66% favorite.
Final
 Iowa Hawkeyes | 21 |
|---|---|
 USC Trojans | 26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +64 USC very lucky · −64 Iowa
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Iowa wins 6, USC wins 4.
- 1 IOWA 44 USC 17
- 2 IOWA 37 USC 17
- 3 IOWA 45 USC 30
- 4 IOWA 24 USC 14
- 5 IOWA 24 USC 17
- 6 IOWA 17 USC 14
- 7 IOWA 24 USC 27
- 8 IOWA 22 USC 28
- 9 IOWA 17 USC 27
- 10 IOWA 14 USC 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Iowa wins 64% of them, USC 36%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: USC by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Iowa by 17+ | 23.0% |
| Iowa by 9–16 | 17.5% |
| Iowa by 1–8 | 21.9% |
| Level after regulation | 6.7% |
| USC by 1–8 | 16.4% |
| USC by 9–16 | 8.8% |
| USC by 17+ | 5.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Sayeri, 40 yds made · 75% expected
- R. Sayeri, 28 yds made · 91% expected
Penalties: Iowa 6 for 70 yards, USC 3 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2:17 | Pass Interference on USC, 15 yards | +3% IOWA +1.5 pts |
| Q2 13:41 | Holding on Iowa, 10 yards | +5% USC +2.6 pts |
| Q2 7:09 | False Start on Iowa, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USC +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:54 | Ineligible Downfield on USC, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +3% IOWA +1.2 pts |
| Q2 0:10 | Holding on Iowa, 10 yards | +2% USC +0.7 pts |
| Q3 13:01 | Holding on USC, 10 yards | +2% IOWA +0.6 pts |
| Q3 0:37 | Pass Interference on Iowa, 15 yards | +2% USC +0.7 pts |
| Q4 10:42 | Pass Interference on Iowa, 15 yards | +8% USC +2.7 pts |
| Q4 1:31 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Iowa, 15 yards | +3% USC +1.6 pts |
When it happened
USC’s chance of winning
As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:59 | USC was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +8% IOWA | USC: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 13:41 | Holding on Iowa, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +5% USC | USC: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 7:47 | Iowa converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +5% IOWA | IOWA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 6:01 | USC fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% USC | USC: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 4:16 | USC converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +6% USC | USC: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 10:42 | Pass Interference on Iowa, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +8% USC | USC: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 9:42 | USC fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% USC | USC: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 1:59 | Iowa was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +8% USC | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Iowa 49% · USC 51%
- Final margin
- USC by 5
- Luck in points
- 4.9 for USC
- Luck-adjusted margin
- USC by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Iowa 64% · USC 36% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Iowa · 
USC
More from Week 12 2025
- Maryland at Illinois ILL 24–6 · replay 92% for the winner
- Penn State at Michigan State PSU 28–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- UCLA at Ohio State OSU 48–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Michigan vs Northwestern MICH 24–22 · replay 99% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Indiana IU 31–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Purdue at Washington WASH 49–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Minnesota at Oregon ORE 42–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner