Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
UCLA at Ohio State, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Ohio State beat UCLA 48–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Ohio State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Ohio State was a 99% favorite.
Final
 UCLA Bruins | 10 |
|---|---|
 Ohio State Buckeyes | 48 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Ohio State about even · −1 UCLA
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UCLA wins 0, Ohio State wins 10.
- 1 UCLA 7 OSU 14
- 2 UCLA 7 OSU 18
- 3 UCLA 10 OSU 26
- 4 UCLA 7 OSU 26
- 5 UCLA 6 OSU 27
- 6 UCLA 3 OSU 28
- 7 UCLA 7 OSU 35
- 8 UCLA 7 OSU 40
- 9 UCLA 7 OSU 44
- 10 UCLA 0 OSU 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UCLA wins 1% of them, Ohio State 99%. The line is what actually happened: Ohio State by 38.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UCLA by 17+ | 0.0% |
| UCLA by 9–16 | 0.2% |
| UCLA by 1–8 | 0.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.3% |
| Ohio State by 1–8 | 6.5% |
| Ohio State by 9–16 | 10.1% |
| Ohio State by 17+ | 82.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Fielding, 41 yds made · 72% expected
- J. Fielding, 33 yds made · 85% expected
- M. Bhaghani, 32 yds made · 87% expected
Penalties: UCLA 7 for 55 yards, Ohio State 3 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:47 | False Start on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% OSU +0.3 pts |
| Q1 8:47 | Delay of Game on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OSU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OSU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 11:32 | Holding on Ohio State, 10 yards | 0% UCLA +1.1 pts |
| Q2 11:32 | Illegal Formation on Ohio State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UCLA +0.7 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Pass Interference on UCLA, 15 yards | 0% OSU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:19 | False Start on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OSU +0.1 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | False Start on Ohio State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UCLA +0.4 pts |
| Q3 10:27 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UCLA, 15 yards | 0% OSU +2.0 pts |
| Q3 8:43 | Illegal Return on UCLA, 5 yards | 0% OSU +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Ohio State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:47 | UCLA was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedFalse Start on UCLA, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsDelay of Game on UCLA, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% OSU | UCLA: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 5:45 | Ohio State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedOhio State was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +0% UCLA | OSU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 0:04 | J. Fielding made a 41-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him | +0% OSU | OSU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 15:00 | UCLA converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedUCLA was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedFalse Start on UCLA, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% UCLA | UCLA: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 11:32 | Ohio State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedOhio State converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedOhio State was stopped on 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedHolding on Ohio State, 10 yardsJudgment callsIllegal Formation on Ohio State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% UCLA | OSU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 4:41 | Ohio State converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedUCLA was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +0% OSU | OSU: End of half |
| 7 | Q2 2:00 | Pass Interference on UCLA, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% OSU | OSU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 10:27 | Ohio State was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 53% expectedUCLA was stopped on 3rd & 223rd & 4th downs · 10% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on UCLA, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% UCLA | OSU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UCLA 0% · Ohio State 100%
- Final margin
- Ohio State by 38
- Luck in points
- 7.5 for Ohio State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ohio State by 30.5
- Replay with same day's form
- UCLA 1% · Ohio State 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
UCLA · 
Ohio State
More from Week 12 2025
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- Maryland at Illinois ILL 24–6 · replay 92% for the winner
- Penn State at Michigan State PSU 28–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- Michigan vs Northwestern MICH 24–22 · replay 99% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Indiana IU 31–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Purdue at Washington WASH 49–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Minnesota at Oregon ORE 42–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner