Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
Oklahoma at Alabama, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Oklahoma beat Alabama 23–21, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, Alabama wins 9 of 10. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 14 points of win probability to Oklahoma.
Before kickoff Alabama was a 66% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:03 left): Return touchdown by Oklahoma, worth 25 points of win probability to Oklahoma.
Final
 Oklahoma Sooners | 23 |
|---|---|
 Alabama Crimson Tide | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +88 Oklahoma very lucky · −88 Alabama
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Oklahoma wins 1, Alabama wins 9.
- 1 OU 17 ALA 9
- 2 OU 7 ALA 10
- 3 OU 10 ALA 14
- 4 OU 6 ALA 14
- 5 OU 10 ALA 21
- 6 OU 3 ALA 17
- 7 OU 7 ALA 24
- 8 OU 0 ALA 21
- 9 OU 10 ALA 34
- 10 OU 3 ALA 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Oklahoma wins 12% of them, Alabama 88%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Oklahoma by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Oklahoma by 17+ | 0.9% |
| Oklahoma by 9–16 | 3.1% |
| Oklahoma by 1–8 | 7.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.4% |
| Alabama by 1–8 | 20.9% |
| Alabama by 9–16 | 19.8% |
| Alabama by 17+ | 46.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Sandell, 25 yds made · 97% expected
- C. Talty, 36 yds blocked · 78% expected
- T. Sandell, 52 yds made · 56% expected
- T. Sandell, 24 yds made · 98% expected
Penalties: Oklahoma 5 for 49 yards, Alabama 2 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:02 | Illegal Block on Oklahoma, 15 yards | +5% ALA +2.3 pts |
| Q2 11:17 | Pass Interference on Oklahoma, 7 yards, wiping out the play | +14% ALA +5.7 pts |
| Q2 1:11 | Holding on Alabama, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% OU +1.4 pts |
| Q3 13:59 | Holding on Oklahoma, 10 yards | +6% ALA +2.2 pts |
| Q3 0:14 | Pass Interference on Alabama, 15 yards | +4% OU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 7:52 | False Start on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% ALA +0.8 pts |
| Q4 7:24 | Intentional Grounding on Oklahoma, 12 yards | +4% ALA +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Alabama’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2:03 | Return touchdown by OklahomaSpecial teams | +25% OU | OU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 11:17 | Pass Interference on Oklahoma, 7 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +14% ALA | ALA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 12:46 | Oklahoma converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +9% OU | OU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 12:14 | Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +7% OU | ALA: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 9:38 | Oklahoma converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +11% OU | OU: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 7:24 | Oklahoma was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedIntentional Grounding on Oklahoma, 12 yardsJudgment calls | +10% ALA | OU: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 5:38 | Alabama converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +8% ALA | ALA: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 2:49 | Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +8% OU | ALA: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Oklahoma 32% · Alabama 68%
- Final margin
- Oklahoma by 2
- Luck in points
- 5.0 for Oklahoma
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Alabama by 3.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Oklahoma 12% · Alabama 88% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Oklahoma · 
Alabama
More from Week 12 2025
- Arkansas at LSU LSU 23–22 · replay 59% for the winner
- Florida at Ole Miss MISS 34–24 · replay 74% for the winner
- South Carolina at Texas A&M TA&M 31–30 · replay 85% for the winner
- Tennessee Tech at Kentucky UK 42–10 · replay 97% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Missouri MIZ 49–27 · replay 97% for the winner
- Texas at Georgia UGA 35–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Tennessee TENN 42–9 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner