luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025

Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 52 of the 58 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Florida at Ole Miss, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

Ole Miss beat Florida 34–24, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. Florida had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 10 points of win probability to Florida.

Before kickoff Ole Miss was a 75% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:40 left): Ole Miss was stopped on 4th & 3, worth 11 points of win probability to Florida.

Final

Florida Gators 24
Ole Miss Rebels 34

November 15, 2025 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · Closing line: Ole Miss −10.5

Luck index +26 Ole Miss lucky · −26 Florida

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Florida wins 3, Ole Miss wins 7.

  1. 1 FLA 27 MISS 10
  2. 2 FLA 34 MISS 26
  3. 3 FLA 20 MISS 17
  4. 4 FLA 24 MISS 27
  5. 5 FLA 21 MISS 27
  6. 6 FLA 19 MISS 28
  7. 7 FLA 24 MISS 38
  8. 8 FLA 17 MISS 35
  9. 9 FLA 6 MISS 30
  10. 10 FLA 10 MISS 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Florida wins 26% of them, Ole Miss 74%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ole Miss by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Florida by 17+4.0%
Florida by 9–166.8%
Florida by 1–813.8%
Level after regulation4.3%
Ole Miss by 1–821.8%
Ole Miss by 9–1619.7%
Ole Miss by 17+29.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.3 points to Florida: the final margin was Ole Miss by 10, without the luck Ole Miss by 13.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • L. Carneiro, 27 yds missed · 89% expected
  • L. Carneiro, 23 yds missed · 91% expected
  • T. Smack, 38 yds made · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Florida 3 for 15 yards, Ole Miss 4 for 32 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:26 Holding on Ole Miss, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% FLA +0.1 pts
Q1 10:53 Illegal Substitution on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MISS +0.3 pts
Q1 0:18 Face Mask on Ole Miss, 2 yards 0% FLA +1.0 pts
Q2 9:55 Offside on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MISS +0.8 pts
Q2 2:15 Ineligible Downfield on Ole Miss, 5 yards, wiping out the play +9% FLA +3.7 pts
Q2 0:24 False Start on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MISS +0.3 pts
Q3 12:15 Face Mask on Ole Miss, 15 yards +4% FLA +1.3 pts

When it happened

Ole Miss’s chance of winning

As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Ole Miss was ahead in it, below while Florida was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 9:39 Ole Miss converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +5% MISS MISS: End of half
2 Q2 2:15 Ineligible Downfield on Ole Miss, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% FLA FLA: Field goal
3 Q3 13:08 Ole Miss converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +10% MISS MISS: Turnover on downs
4 Q3 7:55 Ole Miss was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +5% FLA MISS: Turnover on downs
5 Q3 7:50 Ole Miss was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +10% FLA MISS: Punt
6 Q4 12:13 Florida converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +10% FLA FLA: Turnover
7 Q4 2:40 Ole Miss was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +11% FLA MISS: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:48 Florida was stopped on 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +5% MISS FLA: Turnover on downs

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Florida 2% · Ole Miss 98%

Final margin
Ole Miss by 10
Luck in points
3.3 for Florida
Luck-adjusted margin
Ole Miss by 13.3
Replay with same day's form
Florida 26% · Ole Miss 74% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 52 of the 58 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · Florida · Ole Miss

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