Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
Mississippi State at Missouri, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Missouri beat Mississippi State 49–27, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Missouri wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Missouri was a 69% favorite.
Final
 Mississippi State Bulldogs | 27 |
|---|---|
 Missouri Tigers | 49 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Missouri about even · −3 Mississippi State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Mississippi State wins 0, Missouri wins 10.
- 1 MSST 6 MIZ 10
- 2 MSST 20 MIZ 28
- 3 MSST 13 MIZ 27
- 4 MSST 13 MIZ 31
- 5 MSST 13 MIZ 34
- 6 MSST 10 MIZ 35
- 7 MSST 7 MIZ 35
- 8 MSST 21 MIZ 52
- 9 MSST 3 MIZ 41
- 10 MSST 7 MIZ 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Mississippi State wins 3% of them, Missouri 97%. The line is what actually happened: Missouri by 22.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Mississippi State by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Mississippi State by 9–16 | 0.6% |
| Mississippi State by 1–8 | 2.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| Missouri by 1–8 | 6.3% |
| Missouri by 9–16 | 11.2% |
| Missouri by 17+ | 79.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Ferrie, 47 yds made · 60% expected
- O. Robbins, 54 yds missed · 47% expected
- K. Ferrie, 41 yds made · 72% expected
Penalties: Mississippi State 6 for 35 yards, Missouri 11 for 74 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:22 | Face Mask on Missouri, 15 yards | +5% MSST +3.7 pts |
| Q1 8:56 | Targeting on Missouri, 15 yards | +3% MSST +1.6 pts |
| Q1 8:50 | False Start on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MSST +0.1 pts |
| Q1 8:43 | False Start on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIZ +0.5 pts |
| Q1 0:17 | Holding on Missouri, 2 yards | +1% MSST +0.8 pts |
| Q2 9:37 | Unnecessary Roughness on Missouri, 6 yards | +3% MSST +1.1 pts |
| Q2 9:07 | Targeting on Missouri, 4 yards | +2% MSST +1.0 pts |
| Q2 7:08 | Face Mask on Missouri, 2 yards | +2% MSST +0.8 pts |
| Q2 6:11 | Delay of Game on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIZ +0.8 pts |
| Q2 3:41 | Offside on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% MIZ +2.4 pts |
| Q2 0:14 | Intentional Grounding on Missouri, 0 yards | 0% MSST 0.0 pts |
| Q3 10:20 | Illegal Block on Missouri, 10 yards | +1% MSST +0.6 pts |
| Q3 8:00 | Intentional Grounding on Missouri, 0 yards | 0% MSST 0.0 pts |
| Q3 5:56 | False Start on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MSST +0.8 pts |
| Q3 4:10 | Holding on Missouri, 5 yards | +1% MSST +1.0 pts |
| Q4 10:17 | Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards | 0% MIZ +1.4 pts |
| Q4 8:31 | Pass Interference on Missouri, 15 yards | 0% MSST +3.8 pts |
When it happened
Missouri’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:29 | Missouri converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +3% MIZ | MIZ: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 9:22 | Face Mask on Missouri, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% MSST | MSST: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 2:18 | Mississippi State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +3% MSST | MSST: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 11:04 | Mississippi State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +5% MSST | MSST: Turnover |
| 5 | Q2 4:53 | Mississippi State fumbled and Missouri recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% MIZ | MSST: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 0:03 | O. Robbins missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 47% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before | +3% MSST | MIZ: Turnover |
| 7 | Q3 13:48 | Missouri fumbled and Mississippi State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% MSST | MIZ: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 5:47 | Return touchdown by MissouriSpecial teams | +6% MIZ | MIZ: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Mississippi State 0% · Missouri 100%
- Final margin
- Missouri by 22
- Luck in points
- 1.4 for Mississippi State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Missouri by 23.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Mississippi State 3% · Missouri 97% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Mississippi State · 
Missouri
More from Week 12 2025
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Arkansas at LSU LSU 23–22 · replay 59% for the winner
- Florida at Ole Miss MISS 34–24 · replay 74% for the winner
- South Carolina at Texas A&M TA&M 31–30 · replay 85% for the winner
- Tennessee Tech at Kentucky UK 42–10 · replay 97% for the winner
- Texas at Georgia UGA 35–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Tennessee TENN 42–9 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner