SEC · 2026 season, in progress

Missouri Tigers: luck and expected wins

Missouri is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.8 wins. Luck added 0.2: the 66th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.

2026, game by game

How often Missouri wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff	W 54–14	100%	0
Week 2	@ Kansas	W 38–21	89%	+11
Week 3	vs Troy	W 27–17	90%	+10
Week 4	@ Mississippi State	L 24–31	5%	−5

Wk 1 0 vs UAPB

Wk 2 +11 @ KU

Wk 3 +10 vs TROY

Wk 4 −5 @ MSST

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Missouri win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs Florida	Florida by 6.5	34%
Week 6 · Oct 10	vs Texas A&M	Texas A&M by 1.7	46%
Week 7 · Oct 17	at Ole Miss	Ole Miss by 7.4	32%
Week 9 · Oct 31	at Arkansas	Missouri by 5.5	63%
Week 10 · Nov 7	vs Texas	Texas by 11.0	25%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at Georgia	Georgia by 18.3	14%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs Kentucky	Missouri by 2.9	57%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs Oklahoma	Missouri by 0.1	50%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Missouri’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Fumble bounces	−0.03	−5.7
3rd & 4th downs	−0.24	+4.8
Kicks	−0.30	−1.5

Luckiest wins

Wins Missouri takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 8	@ Auburn	W 23–17	32%	+68
2025 Week 2	vs Kansas	W 42–31	72%	+28
2025 Week 14	@ Arkansas	W 31–17	84%	+16
2026 Week 2	@ Kansas	W 38–21	89%	+11
2026 Week 3	vs Troy	W 27–17	90%	+10

Unluckiest losses

Losses Missouri would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 TaxSlayer Gator Bowl	vs Virginia	L 7–13	78%	−78
2025 Week 7	vs Alabama	L 24–27	70%	−70
2025 Week 13	@ Oklahoma	L 6–17	54%	−54
2025 Week 11	vs Texas A&M	L 17–38	34%	−34
2025 Week 9	@ Vanderbilt	L 10–17	33%	−33

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	8–4	8.7	−0.7	1–2	0–1

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Central Arkansas	W 61–6	99%	+1
Week 2	vs Kansas	W 42–31	72%	+28
Week 3	vs Louisiana	W 52–10	100%	0
Week 4	vs South Carolina	W 29–20	92%	+8
Week 5	vs Massachusetts	W 42–6	100%	0
Week 7	vs Alabama	L 24–27	70%	−70
Week 8	@ Auburn	W 23–17	32%	+68
Week 9	@ Vanderbilt	L 10–17	33%	−33
Week 11	vs Texas A&M	L 17–38	34%	−34
Week 12	vs Mississippi State	W 49–27	97%	+3
Week 13	@ Oklahoma	L 6–17	54%	−54
Week 14	@ Arkansas	W 31–17	84%	+16
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl	vs Virginia	L 7–13	78%	−78