Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
Massachusetts at Missouri, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
Missouri beat Massachusetts 42–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Missouri wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Missouri was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Massachusetts Minutemen | 6 |
|---|---|
 Missouri Tigers | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Missouri about even · 0 Massachusetts
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Massachusetts wins 0, Missouri wins 10.
- 1 MASS 6 MIZ 28
- 2 MASS 0 MIZ 31
- 3 MASS 0 MIZ 35
- 4 MASS 0 MIZ 38
- 5 MASS 3 MIZ 45
- 6 MASS 10 MIZ 55
- 7 MASS 3 MIZ 52
- 8 MASS 0 MIZ 52
- 9 MASS 0 MIZ 56
- 10 MASS 3 MIZ 66
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Massachusetts wins 0% of them, Missouri 100%. The line is what actually happened: Missouri by 36.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Massachusetts by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Massachusetts by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Massachusetts by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Missouri by 1–8 | 0.4% |
| Missouri by 9–16 | 1.8% |
| Missouri by 17+ | 97.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
Penalties: Massachusetts 3 for 25 yards, Missouri 1 for 5 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:36 | Penalty on Missouri, 5 yards | 0% MASS +2.4 pts |
| Q2 2:15 | Penalty on Massachusetts, 15 yards | 0% MIZ +1.6 pts |
| Q3 0:44 | False Start on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIZ +0.6 pts |
| Q4 11:12 | Illegal Formation on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIZ +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Missouri’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:42 | Massachusetts was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +0% MIZ | MASS: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 4:36 | Penalty on Missouri, 5 yardsJudgment calls | +0% MASS | MASS: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 4:31 | Massachusetts missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time | +0% MIZ | MASS: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 14:26 | Massachusetts converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +0% MASS | MASS: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 13:00 | Massachusetts was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +0% MIZ | MASS: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 11:02 | Missouri converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +0% MIZ | MIZ: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 8:35 | Missouri converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +0% MIZ | MIZ: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 6:49 | Missouri converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +0% MIZ | MIZ: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Massachusetts 0% · Missouri 100%
- Final margin
- Missouri by 36
- Luck in points
- 3.7 for Missouri
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Missouri by 32.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Massachusetts 0% · Missouri 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Massachusetts · 
Missouri
More from Week 5 2025
- Alabama at Georgia ALA 24–21 · replay 54% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Ohio OHIO 35–20 · replay 62% for the winner
- LSU at Ole Miss MISS 24–19 · replay 66% for the winner
- UConn at Buffalo CONN 20–17 · replay 71% for the winner
- Tennessee at Mississippi State TENN 41–34 · replay 77% for the winner
- San Diego State at Northern Illinois SDSU 6–3 · replay 82% for the winner
- Rhode Island at Western Michigan WMU 47–14 · replay 88% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan CMU 24–13 · replay 90% for the winner
- Auburn at Texas A&M TA&M 16–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- Kentucky at South Carolina SC 35–13 · replay 95% for the winner
- Utah State at Vanderbilt VAN 55–35 · replay 100% for the winner
- Lindenwood at Miami (OH) M-OH 38–0 · replay 100% for the winner