luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

2025 college football season · September 25, 2025–September 27, 2025

Week 5 2025: upsets, and who deserved to win

10 upsets in Week 5 2025. The biggest: Virginia Tech beat NC State 23–21 as 26% underdogs, a coin flip on the day. 8 of 53 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: Houston beat Oregon State 27–24 in a game it wins 34% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Week 5 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 10 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form (our postgame win expectancy).

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Virginia Tech 23–21 @ NC State 26% 45% Coin flip
Hawai'i 44–35 @ Air Force 32% 5% Lucky
Virginia 46–38 vs Florida State 33% 78% Deserved
Illinois 34–32 vs USC 34% 76% Deserved
California 28–24 @ Boston College 35% 28% Lucky
Cincinnati 37–34 @ Kansas 36% 30% Lucky
Washington State 20–3 @ Colorado State 39% 70% Deserved
Oregon 30–24 @ Penn State 41% 39% Lucky
Alabama 24–21 @ Georgia 44% 54% Coin flip
Louisiana 54–51 vs Marshall 44% 29% Lucky

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 5 luck ranking

Every FBS team’s luck index: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Hawai'i W 44–35 @ Air Force 5% +95
2 Louisville W 34–27 @ Pittsburgh 11% +89
3 California W 28–24 @ Boston College 28% +72
4 Louisiana W 54–51 vs Marshall 29% +71
5 Cincinnati W 37–34 @ Kansas 30% +70
6 Houston W 27–24 @ Oregon State 34% +66
7 Oregon W 30–24 @ Penn State 39% +61
8 Georgia Tech W 30–29 @ Wake Forest 40% +60
9 Minnesota W 31–28 vs Rutgers 41% +59
10 Stanford W 30–29 vs San José State 43% +57
11 Virginia Tech W 23–21 @ NC State 45% +55
12 Louisiana Tech W 30–11 @ UTEP 47% +53
13 Indiana W 20–15 @ Iowa 48% +52
14 Alabama W 24–21 @ Georgia 54% +46
15 Western Kentucky W 27–22 @ Missouri State 55% +45
16 BYU W 24–21 @ Colorado 57% +43
17 Ohio W 35–20 vs Bowling Green 62% +38
18 Kennesaw State W 24–16 vs Middle Tennessee 64% +36
19 Ole Miss W 24–19 vs LSU 66% +34
20 Northwestern W 17–14 vs UCLA 66% +34
21 Washington State W 20–3 @ Colorado State 70% +30
22 UConn W 20–17 @ Buffalo 71% +29
23 North Texas W 36–22 vs South Alabama 72% +28
24 Illinois W 34–32 vs USC 76% +24
25 Tulane W 31–14 @ Tulsa 76% +24
26 Tennessee W 41–34 @ Mississippi State 77% +23
27 Iowa State W 39–14 vs Arizona 77% +23
28 Virginia W 46–38 vs Florida State 78% +22
29 Ohio State W 24–6 @ Washington 79% +21
30 San Diego State W 6–3 @ Northern Illinois 82% +18
31 Kansas State W 34–20 vs UCF 82% +18
32 Western Michigan W 47–14 vs Rhode Island 88% +12
33 Arizona State W 27–24 vs TCU 89% +11
34 Central Michigan W 24–13 vs Eastern Michigan 90% +10
35 East Carolina W 28–6 vs Army 91% +9
36 Memphis W 55–26 @ Florida Atlantic 94% +6
37 Baylor W 45–27 @ Oklahoma State 94% +6
38 Texas A&M W 16–10 vs Auburn 95% +5
39 South Carolina W 35–13 vs Kentucky 95% +5
40 Duke W 38–3 @ Syracuse 96% +4
41 UL Monroe W 28–16 vs Arkansas State 97% +3
42 Utah W 48–14 @ West Virginia 97% +3
43 New Mexico W 38–20 vs New Mexico State 97% +3
44 Boise State W 47–14 vs App State 98% +2
45 Navy W 21–13 vs Rice 99% +1
46 Southern Miss W 42–25 vs Jacksonville State 99% +1
47 Vanderbilt W 55–35 vs Utah State 100% 0
48 Miami (OH) W 38–0 vs Lindenwood 100% 0
49 Old Dominion W 21–7 vs Liberty 100% 0
50 Notre Dame W 56–13 @ Arkansas 100% 0
51 James Madison W 35–10 vs Georgia Southern 100% 0
52 Toledo W 45–3 vs Akron 100% 0
53 Missouri W 42–6 vs Massachusetts 100% 0
54 Akron L 3–45 @ Toledo 0% 0
55 Massachusetts L 6–42 @ Missouri 0% 0
56 Georgia Southern L 10–35 @ James Madison 0% 0
57 Arkansas L 13–56 vs Notre Dame 0% 0
58 Liberty L 7–21 @ Old Dominion 0% 0
59 Utah State L 35–55 @ Vanderbilt 0% 0
60 Jacksonville State L 25–42 @ Southern Miss 1% −1
61 Rice L 13–21 @ Navy 1% −1
62 App State L 14–47 @ Boise State 2% −2
63 New Mexico State L 20–38 @ New Mexico 3% −3
64 West Virginia L 14–48 vs Utah 3% −3
65 Arkansas State L 16–28 @ UL Monroe 3% −3
66 Syracuse L 3–38 vs Duke 4% −4
67 Kentucky L 13–35 @ South Carolina 5% −5
68 Auburn L 10–16 @ Texas A&M 5% −5
69 Oklahoma State L 27–45 vs Baylor 6% −6
70 Florida Atlantic L 26–55 vs Memphis 6% −6
71 Army L 6–28 @ East Carolina 9% −9
72 Eastern Michigan L 13–24 @ Central Michigan 10% −10
73 TCU L 24–27 @ Arizona State 11% −11
74 UCF L 20–34 @ Kansas State 18% −18
75 Northern Illinois L 3–6 vs San Diego State 18% −18
76 Washington L 6–24 vs Ohio State 21% −21
77 Florida State L 38–46 @ Virginia 22% −22
78 Arizona L 14–39 @ Iowa State 23% −23
79 Mississippi State L 34–41 vs Tennessee 23% −23
80 Tulsa L 14–31 vs Tulane 24% −24
81 USC L 32–34 @ Illinois 24% −24
82 South Alabama L 22–36 @ North Texas 28% −28
83 Buffalo L 17–20 vs UConn 29% −29
84 Colorado State L 3–20 vs Washington State 30% −30
85 UCLA L 14–17 @ Northwestern 34% −34
86 LSU L 19–24 @ Ole Miss 34% −34
87 Middle Tennessee L 16–24 @ Kennesaw State 36% −36
88 Bowling Green L 20–35 @ Ohio 38% −38
89 Colorado L 21–24 vs BYU 43% −43
90 Missouri State L 22–27 vs Western Kentucky 45% −45
91 Georgia L 21–24 vs Alabama 46% −46
92 Iowa L 15–20 vs Indiana 52% −52
93 UTEP L 11–30 vs Louisiana Tech 53% −53
94 NC State L 21–23 vs Virginia Tech 55% −55
95 San José State L 29–30 @ Stanford 57% −57
96 Rutgers L 28–31 @ Minnesota 59% −59
97 Wake Forest L 29–30 vs Georgia Tech 60% −60
98 Penn State L 24–30 vs Oregon 61% −61
99 Oregon State L 24–27 vs Houston 66% −66
100 Kansas L 34–37 vs Cincinnati 70% −70
101 Marshall L 51–54 @ Louisiana 71% −71
102 Boston College L 24–28 vs California 72% −72
103 Pittsburgh L 27–34 vs Louisville 89% −89
104 Air Force L 35–44 vs Hawai'i 95% −95