Week 5 2025 · September 26, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 44 of the 51 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Houston at Oregon State, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
Houston beat Oregon State 27–24, but the replays lean toward Oregon State: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form.
Houston won on an off day: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Oregon State it would win 66% of the time; with this day’s form, 34%. The numbers
Before kickoff Houston was a 77% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:27 left): Oregon State fumbled and recovered it, worth 39 points of win probability to Oregon State.
Final (OT)
 Houston Cougars | 27 |
|---|---|
 Oregon State Beavers | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +66 Houston very lucky · −66 Oregon State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Houston wins 3, Oregon State wins 7.
- 1 HOU 21 ORST 3
- 2 HOU 24 ORST 16
- 3 HOU 17 ORST 14
- 4 HOU 10 ORST 12
- 5 HOU 10 ORST 16
- 6 HOU 10 ORST 17
- 7 HOU 17 ORST 28
- 8 HOU 10 ORST 24
- 9 HOU 16 ORST 34
- 10 HOU 10 ORST 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Houston won on an off day
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Oregon State it would win 66% of the time; with this day’s form, 34%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
32 points apart for Houston: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston offenseEPA per play gained | −0.28 | −0.01 | worse by 0.27 |
| Houston defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.01 | worse by 0.05 |
| Oregon State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.06 | +0.08 | worse by 0.02 |
| Oregon State defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.28 | +0.13 | better by 0.41 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Houston wins 34% of them, Oregon State 66%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Houston by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Houston by 17+ | 4.8% |
| Houston by 9–16 | 9.2% |
| Houston by 1–8 | 17.0% |
| Level after regulation | 5.0% |
| Oregon State by 1–8 | 22.4% |
| Oregon State by 9–16 | 19.5% |
| Oregon State by 17+ | 22.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- E. Sanchez, 25 yds made · 92% expected
- C. Ojeda, 31 yds made · 85% expected
- C. Smith, 46 yds missed · 61% expected
- E. Sanchez, 24 yds made · 93% expected
Penalties: Houston 9 for 65 yards, Oregon State 4 for 9 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:00 | Ineligible Downfield on Oregon State, 0 yards | 0% HOU 0.0 pts |
| Q1 6:34 | Holding on Houston, 10 yards | +1% ORST +0.6 pts |
| Q2 13:43 | Holding on Houston, 20 yards | +3% ORST +1.2 pts |
| Q2 7:16 | Illegal Substitution on Oregon State, 1 yard · pre-snap | 0% HOU +0.1 pts |
| Q2 7:00 | False Start on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ORST +0.3 pts |
| Q2 6:04 | Pass Interference on Oregon State, 3 yards | +2% HOU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 6:02 | False Start on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ORST +0.3 pts |
| Q2 5:57 | Ineligible Downfield on Houston, 0 yards | 0% ORST 0.0 pts |
| Q3 10:23 | Holding on Houston, 10 yards | +2% ORST +0.6 pts |
| Q3 4:46 | Holding on Houston, 0 yards | 0% ORST 0.0 pts |
| Q3 0:30 | Offside on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% ORST +1.2 pts |
| Q4 12:37 | Delay of Game on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% HOU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 7:32 | Holding on Houston, 10 yards | +1% ORST +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Oregon State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 99%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:00 | Oregon State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expectedOregon State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% ORST | ORST: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 10:47 | Houston converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +5% HOU | HOU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 7:51 | Houston converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +5% HOU | HOU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 5:41 | Oregon State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +4% HOU | ORST: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 1:07 | Houston was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +5% ORST | HOU: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 0:27 | Oregon State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +39% ORST | ORST: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q4 0:05 | C. Smith missed a 46-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +28% ORST | – |
| 8 | OT | E. Sanchez made a 24-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him | +7% ORST | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Houston 84% · Oregon State 16%
- Final margin
- Houston by 3
- Luck in points
- 3.6 for Oregon State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Houston by 6.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Houston 34% · Oregon State 66% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 44 of the 51 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Houston · 
Oregon State
More from Week 5 2025
- Cincinnati at Kansas CIN 37–34 · replay 30% for the winner
- BYU at Colorado BYU 24–21 · replay 57% for the winner
- Washington State at Colorado State WSU 20–3 · replay 70% for the winner
- Arizona at Iowa State ISU 39–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- UCF at Kansas State KSU 34–20 · replay 82% for the winner
- TCU at Arizona State ASU 27–24 · replay 89% for the winner
- Baylor at Oklahoma State BAY 45–27 · replay 94% for the winner
- Utah at West Virginia UTAH 48–14 · replay 97% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner
- California at Boston College CAL 28–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Marshall at Louisiana UL 54–51 · replay 29% for the winner