Big 12 · 2026 season, in progress
Houston Cougars: luck and expected wins
Houston is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.1 wins. Luck cost 0.1: the 52nd-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.
2026, game by game
How often Houston wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Oregon State | W 33–20 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 2 | vs Southern | W 77–6 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 3 | @ Texas Tech | L 26–28 | 27% | −27 |
| Week 4 | @ Georgia Southern | W 42–28 | 98% | +2 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Houston win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | vs UCF |  Houston by 6.0 | 65% |
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | at Kansas State |  Kansas State by 4.0 | 40% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | vs Oklahoma State | Houston by 11.3 | 76% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | at Utah |  Utah by 17.7 | 14% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | vs Cincinnati | Houston by 5.8 | 64% |
| Week 11 · Nov 13 | at Colorado | Houston by 8.3 | 69% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | at West Virginia | Houston by 5.8 | 63% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | vs Baylor | Houston by 6.1 | 64% |
Luckiest wins
Wins Houston takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 5 | @ Oregon State | W 27–24 | 34% | +66 |
| 2025 Week 14 | @ Baylor | W 31–24 | 52% | +48 |
| 2025 Week 9 | @ Arizona State | W 24–16 | 54% | +46 |
| 2025 Kinder's Texas Bowl | vs LSU | W 38–35 | 60% | +40 |
| 2025 Week 3 | vs Colorado | W 36–20 | 74% | +26 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Houston would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 10 | vs West Virginia | L 35–45 | 58% | −58 |
| 2025 Week 6 | vs Texas Tech | L 11–35 | 55% | −55 |
| 2026 Week 3 | @ Texas Tech | L 26–28 | 27% | −27 |
| 2025 Week 13 | vs TCU | L 14–17 | 25% | −25 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9–3 | 8.0 | +1.0 | 5–1 | 1–0 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Stephen F. Austin | W 27–0 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | @ Rice | W 35–9 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 3 | vs Colorado | W 36–20 | 74% | +26 |
| Week 5 | @ Oregon State | W 27–24 | 34% | +66 |
| Week 6 | vs Texas Tech | L 11–35 | 55% | −55 |
| Week 7 | @ Oklahoma State | W 39–17 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 8 | vs Arizona | W 31–28 | 80% | +20 |
| Week 9 | @ Arizona State | W 24–16 | 54% | +46 |
| Week 10 | vs West Virginia | L 35–45 | 58% | −58 |
| Week 11 | @ UCF | W 30–27 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 13 | vs TCU | L 14–17 | 25% | −25 |
| Week 14 | @ Baylor | W 31–24 | 52% | +48 |
| Kinder's Texas Bowl | vs LSU | W 38–35 | 60% | +40 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Big 12 teams by luck
- Big 12:
Arizona, 
Arizona State, 
Baylor, 
BYU, 
Cincinnati, 
Colorado, 
Iowa State, 
Kansas, Kansas State, 
Oklahoma State, 
TCU, 
Texas Tech, 
UCF, Utah, 
West Virginia
How many wins does Houston have in 2026?
3–1 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 3.1 wins.
Was Houston lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: −0.1 wins of luck, the 52nd-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Houston’s luckiest season?
2025: 9–3 from play worth 8.0 wins, +1.0 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 3–1 from play worth 3.1 (−0.1).