Big 12 · 2026 season, in progress

UCF Knights: luck and expected wins

UCF is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.0 wins. Luck added 0.0: the 65th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–1.

2026, game by game

How often UCF wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Bethune-Cookman	W 73–6	100%	0
Week 2	@ Pittsburgh	L 7–12	42%	−42
Week 3	vs Georgia State	W 44–30	78%	+22
Week 4	vs TCU	W 21–13	77%	+23

Wk 1 0 vs BCU

Wk 2 −42 @ PITT

Wk 3 +22 vs GAST

Wk 4 +23 vs TCU

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	UCF win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	at Houston	Houston by 6.0	35%
Week 6 · Oct 10	at Oklahoma State	UCF by 2.1	55%
Week 8 · Oct 24	vs BYU	BYU by 4.8	39%
Week 9 · Oct 30	vs Baylor	UCF by 3.3	58%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at Kansas	UCF by 2.1	55%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs Arizona State	UCF by 3.7	59%
Week 12 · Nov 20	vs Iowa State	Iowa State by 1.6	46%
Week 13 · Nov 28	at Colorado	UCF by 5.5	63%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in UCF’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Pre-snap flags	+0.07	+5.3
Kicks	+0.04	+0.1
Fumble bounces	−0.06	+3.0
3rd & 4th downs	−0.28	−4.3

Luckiest wins

Wins UCF takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 4	vs TCU	W 21–13	77%	+23
2026 Week 3	vs Georgia State	W 44–30	78%	+22
2025 Week 1	vs Jacksonville State	W 17–10	79%	+21
2025 Week 4	vs North Carolina	W 34–9	91%	+9
2025 Week 13	vs Oklahoma State	W 17–14	92%	+8

Unluckiest losses

Losses UCF would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 2	@ Pittsburgh	L 7–12	42%	−42
2025 Week 6	vs Kansas	L 20–27	29%	−29
2025 Week 7	@ Cincinnati	L 11–20	24%	−24
2025 Week 5	@ Kansas State	L 20–34	18%	−18
2025 Week 14	@ BYU	L 21–41	10%	−10

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	5–7	5.5	−0.5	2–2	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Jacksonville State	W 17–10	79%	+21
Week 2	vs North Carolina A&T	W 68–7	100%	0
Week 4	vs North Carolina	W 34–9	91%	+9
Week 5	@ Kansas State	L 20–34	18%	−18
Week 6	vs Kansas	L 20–27	29%	−29
Week 7	@ Cincinnati	L 11–20	24%	−24
Week 8	vs West Virginia	W 45–13	100%	0
Week 10	@ Baylor	L 3–30	3%	−3
Week 11	vs Houston	L 27–30	8%	−8
Week 12	@ Texas Tech	L 9–48	0%	0
Week 13	vs Oklahoma State	W 17–14	92%	+8
Week 14	@ BYU	L 21–41	10%	−10