Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 17 of the 19 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
UCF at Pittsburgh, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Pittsburgh beat UCF 12–7, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Pittsburgh wins 6 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 9 points of win probability to Pittsburgh.
Before kickoff Pittsburgh was a 69% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:23 left): UCF was stopped on 4th & 4, worth 20 points of win probability to Pittsburgh.
Final
 UCF Knights | 7 |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Panthers | 12 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +42 Pittsburgh lucky · −42 UCF
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UCF wins 4, Pittsburgh wins 6.
- 1 UCF 24 PITT 3
- 2 UCF 20 PITT 7
- 3 UCF 17 PITT 10
- 4 UCF 10 PITT 7
- 5 UCF 7 PITT 10
- 6 UCF 10 PITT 14
- 7 UCF 3 PITT 10
- 8 UCF 14 PITT 24
- 9 UCF 13 PITT 27
- 10 UCF 10 PITT 30
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UCF wins 42% of them, Pittsburgh 58%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Pittsburgh by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UCF by 17+ | 6.6% |
| UCF by 9–16 | 13.3% |
| UCF by 1–8 | 20.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.5% |
| Pittsburgh by 1–8 | 27.8% |
| Pittsburgh by 9–16 | 19.0% |
| Pittsburgh by 17+ | 11.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: UCF 8 for 50 yards, Pittsburgh 8 for 64 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:58 | False Start on Pittsburgh, 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% PITT +0.6 pts |
| Q1 11:20 | Holding on UCF, 10 yards | +3% PITT +1.9 pts |
| Q1 9:37 | Delay of Game on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PITT +0.7 pts |
| Q1 6:12 | Holding on Pittsburgh, 10 yards | +3% UCF +1.5 pts |
| Q1 4:09 | Illegal Substitution on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PITT +1.0 pts |
| Q2 8:45 | False Start on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UCF +0.5 pts |
| Q2 7:56 | Illegal Shift on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PITT +2.1 pts |
| Q2 0:07 | Holding on UCF, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% PITT +1.6 pts |
| Q3 12:13 | Holding on Pittsburgh, 10 yards | +1% UCF +1.1 pts |
| Q3 7:07 | False Start on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UCF +1.5 pts |
| Q3 0:45 | Delay of Game on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PITT +0.3 pts |
| Q4 12:29 | Delay of Game on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UCF +0.6 pts |
| Q4 12:09 | Holding on Pittsburgh, 10 yards | +1% UCF +0.6 pts |
| Q4 5:20 | Pass Interference on Pittsburgh, 15 yards | +1% UCF +1.6 pts |
| Q4 2:56 | False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PITT +0.6 pts |
| Q4 2:01 | False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PITT +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Pittsburgh’s chance of winning
As low as 35% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:05 | UCF converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +5% UCF | UCF: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:20 | Holding on UCF, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% PITT | PITT: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 3:16 | Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +4% PITT | PITT: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 11:18 | Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +4% PITT | PITT: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 9:13 | Pittsburgh was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +4% UCF | PITT: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 9:40 | UCF converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 17% expected | +4% UCF | UCF: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 2:51 | UCF converted 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 13% expected | +4% UCF | UCF: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 1:23 | UCF was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +20% PITT | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UCF 15% · Pittsburgh 85%
- Final margin
- Pittsburgh by 5
- Luck in points
- 2.1 for UCF
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Pittsburgh by 7.1
- Replay with same day's form
- UCF 42% · Pittsburgh 58% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 17 of the 19 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
UCF · 
Pittsburgh
More from Week 2 2026
- California at Syracuse CAL 21–18 · replay 19% for the winner
- Duke at Illinois DUKE 31–27 · replay 25% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Oregon State TTU 35–24 · replay 27% for the winner
- Tennessee at Georgia Tech TENN 45–24 · replay 33% for the winner
- Arizona State at Texas A&M TA&M 48–20 · replay 45% for the winner
- Rutgers at Boston College BC 28–21 · replay 45% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Clemson CLEM 22–7 · replay 64% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Purdue WAKE 38–36 · replay 65% for the winner
- Iowa State at Iowa IOWA 16–13 · replay 76% for the winner
- Arizona at BYU BYU 28–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Missouri at Kansas MIZ 38–21 · replay 89% for the winner
- Oregon at Oklahoma State OKST 39–31 · replay 96% for the winner