Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Iowa State at Iowa, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Iowa beat Iowa State 16–13, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Iowa was an 82% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:57 left): Iowa was stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 9 points of win probability to Iowa State.
Final
 Iowa State Cyclones | 13 |
|---|---|
 Iowa Hawkeyes | 16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 Iowa about even · −24 Iowa State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Iowa State wins 2, Iowa wins 8.
- 1 ISU 14 IOWA 3
- 2 ISU 13 IOWA 10
- 3 ISU 7 IOWA 10
- 4 ISU 10 IOWA 14
- 5 ISU 15 IOWA 23
- 6 ISU 10 IOWA 23
- 7 ISU 0 IOWA 15
- 8 ISU 6 IOWA 24
- 9 ISU 3 IOWA 24
- 10 ISU 0 IOWA 29
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Iowa State wins 24% of them, Iowa 76%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Iowa by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Iowa State by 17+ | 2.5% |
| Iowa State by 9–16 | 6.3% |
| Iowa State by 1–8 | 13.1% |
| Level after regulation | 5.0% |
| Iowa by 1–8 | 23.3% |
| Iowa by 9–16 | 20.6% |
| Iowa by 17+ | 29.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Konrardy, 29 yds made · 89% expected
- C. Buhr, 45 yds made · 63% expected
- K. Konrardy, 51 yds made · 54% expected
- C. Buhr, 32 yds made · 85% expected
- C. Buhr, 42 yds made · 69% expected
Penalties: Iowa State 6 for 45 yards, Iowa 4 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:40 | False Start on Iowa, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ISU +1.1 pts |
| Q1 13:06 | False Start on Iowa, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ISU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 13:28 | False Start on Iowa, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ISU +0.2 pts |
| Q3 12:05 | Holding on Iowa State, 10 yards | +3% IOWA +1.3 pts |
| Q3 11:17 | Illegal Substitution on Iowa State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% IOWA +0.5 pts |
| Q3 3:55 | Offside on Iowa State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IOWA +0.7 pts |
| Q3 3:04 | Holding on Iowa State, 10 yards | +2% IOWA +0.6 pts |
| Q3 2:09 | Holding on Iowa State, 10 yards | +2% IOWA +0.6 pts |
| Q3 0:09 | Holding on Iowa, 10 yards | 0% ISU +1.1 pts |
| Q4 4:54 | False Start on Iowa State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +7% IOWA +1.1 pts |
When it happened
Iowa’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:28 | Iowa was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +5% ISU | IOWA: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 13:21 | Iowa State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +4% ISU | ISU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 10:06 | K. Konrardy made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 54% expected for him, 9 of 17 from 45+ before | +5% ISU | ISU: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 8:16 | Iowa was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +5% ISU | IOWA: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 6:57 | Iowa was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +9% ISU | IOWA: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 4:54 | False Start on Iowa State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +7% IOWA | IOWA: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 4:37 | Iowa State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +8% IOWA | ISU: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 0:15 | C. Buhr made a 42-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him | +8% IOWA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Iowa State 17% · Iowa 83%
- Final margin
- Iowa by 3
- Luck in points
- 2.8 for Iowa State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Iowa by 5.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Iowa State 24% · Iowa 76% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Iowa State · 
Iowa
More from Week 2 2026
- Duke at Illinois DUKE 31–27 · replay 25% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Oregon State TTU 35–24 · replay 27% for the winner
- Ohio State at Texas TEX 24–23 · replay 32% for the winner
- Utah State at Washington WASH 16–14 · replay 41% for the winner
- Arizona State at Texas A&M TA&M 48–20 · replay 45% for the winner
- Rutgers at Boston College BC 28–21 · replay 45% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Michigan MICH 17–10 · replay 48% for the winner
- Penn State at Temple PSU 27–9 · replay 53% for the winner
- UCF at Pittsburgh PITT 12–7 · replay 58% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Purdue WAKE 38–36 · replay 65% for the winner
- Arizona at BYU BYU 28–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- San Diego State at UCLA UCLA 28–10 · replay 82% for the winner