Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Ohio State at Texas, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Texas beat Ohio State 24–23, but the replays lean toward Ohio State: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Texas.
Before kickoff Texas was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:53 left): Texas fumbled and recovered it, worth 14 points of win probability to Texas.
Final
 Ohio State Buckeyes | 23 |
|---|---|
 Texas Longhorns | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +68 Texas very lucky · −68 Ohio State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ohio State wins 7, Texas wins 3.
- 1 OSU 42 TEX 10
- 2 OSU 41 TEX 17
- 3 OSU 34 TEX 17
- 4 OSU 31 TEX 17
- 5 OSU 27 TEX 17
- 6 OSU 28 TEX 21
- 7 OSU 20 TEX 17
- 8 OSU 17 TEX 20
- 9 OSU 20 TEX 27
- 10 OSU 6 TEX 23
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ohio State wins 68% of them, Texas 32%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ohio State by 17+ | 27.7% |
| Ohio State by 9–16 | 19.5% |
| Ohio State by 1–8 | 19.6% |
| Level after regulation | 4.5% |
| Texas by 1–8 | 14.9% |
| Texas by 9–16 | 7.7% |
| Texas by 17+ | 6.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Hawkins, 26 yds made · 90% expected
- G. Spetic, 37 yds made · 78% expected
- C. Hawkins, 30 yds made · 87% expected
- C. Hawkins, 48 yds made · 58% expected
- C. Hawkins, 45 yds missed · 64% expected
Penalties: Ohio State 4 for 35 yards, Texas 2 for 12 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 1:04 | False Start on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% OSU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 1:04 | Offside on Ohio State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEX +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:10 | Offside on Ohio State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEX +0.3 pts |
| Q3 3:47 | Pass Interference on Ohio State, 15 yards | +1% TEX +2.2 pts |
| Q4 6:20 | Pass Interference on Texas, 7 yards | +1% OSU +0.4 pts |
| Q4 0:25 | Holding on Ohio State, 10 yards | +1% OSU +0.1 pts |
When it happened
Texas’s chance of winning
As low as 2% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:42 | Ohio State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +6% OSU | OSU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 13:23 | Ohio State was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +5% TEX | OSU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 2:51 | Ohio State converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +6% OSU | OSU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 0:49 | Texas was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +6% OSU | TEX: End of half |
| 5 | Q4 4:16 | C. Hawkins missed a 45-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before | +8% TEX | OSU: End of game |
| 6 | Q4 1:54 | Texas converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +5% TEX | TEX: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 0:53 | Texas fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +14% TEX | TEX: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:25 | Texas converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expectedHolding on Ohio State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +8% TEX | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ohio State 74% · Texas 26%
- Final margin
- Texas by 1
- Luck in points
- 5.3 for Texas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ohio State by 4.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Ohio State 68% · Texas 32% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Ohio State · 
Texas
More from Week 2 2026
- Duke at Illinois DUKE 31–27 · replay 25% for the winner
- Tennessee at Georgia Tech TENN 45–24 · replay 33% for the winner
- Utah State at Washington WASH 16–14 · replay 41% for the winner
- Arizona State at Texas A&M TA&M 48–20 · replay 45% for the winner
- Rutgers at Boston College BC 28–21 · replay 45% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Michigan MICH 17–10 · replay 48% for the winner
- Penn State at Temple PSU 27–9 · replay 53% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Purdue WAKE 38–36 · replay 65% for the winner
- Delaware at Vanderbilt VAN 35–26 · replay 74% for the winner
- Iowa State at Iowa IOWA 16–13 · replay 76% for the winner
- San Diego State at UCLA UCLA 28–10 · replay 82% for the winner
- Maryland at UConn MD 38–14 · replay 87% for the winner