Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Tennessee beat Georgia Tech 45–24, but the replays lean toward Georgia Tech: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form.
Tennessee won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Georgia Tech it would win 84% of the time; with this day’s form, 33%. The numbers
Before kickoff Tennessee was a 79% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:24 left): Return touchdown by Tennessee, worth 16 points of win probability to Tennessee.
Final
 Tennessee Volunteers | 45 |
|---|---|
 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +67 Tennessee very lucky · −67 Georgia Tech
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tennessee wins 3, Georgia Tech wins 7.
- 1 TENN 24 GT 7
- 2 TENN 21 GT 13
- 3 TENN 16 GT 13
- 4 TENN 13 GT 16
- 5 TENN 20 GT 27
- 6 TENN 21 GT 31
- 7 TENN 10 GT 23
- 8 TENN 7 GT 24
- 9 TENN 16 GT 37
- 10 TENN 17 GT 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Tennessee won on an off day
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Georgia Tech it would win 84% of the time; with this day’s form, 33%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
51 points apart for Tennessee: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee offenseEPA per play gained | +0.17 | +0.15 | better by 0.02 |
| Tennessee defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.05 | +0.10 | better by 0.04 |
| Georgia Tech offenseEPA per play gained | +0.05 | +0.09 | worse by 0.03 |
| Georgia Tech defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.17 | +0.10 | worse by 0.07 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Tennessee wins 33% of them, Georgia Tech 67%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tennessee by 21.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tennessee by 17+ | 5.9% |
| Tennessee by 9–16 | 9.1% |
| Tennessee by 1–8 | 15.8% |
| Level after regulation | 4.3% |
| Georgia Tech by 1–8 | 23.2% |
| Georgia Tech by 9–16 | 19.3% |
| Georgia Tech by 17+ | 22.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. Birr, 30 yds made · 87% expected
- C. Ranvier, 32 yds made · 84% expected
Penalties: Tennessee 14 for 142 yards, Georgia Tech 5 for 46 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:31 | Offside on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GT +0.7 pts |
| Q1 4:47 | False Start on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% GT +1.0 pts |
| Q2 14:20 | False Start on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GT +0.5 pts |
| Q2 13:17 | Holding on Georgia Tech, 10 yards | +4% TENN +2.1 pts |
| Q2 10:43 | Holding on Tennessee, 10 yards | +1% GT +0.6 pts |
| Q2 5:58 | Pass Interference on Georgia Tech, 6 yards | +2% TENN +1.6 pts |
| Q3 13:13 | Face Mask on Georgia Tech, 15 yards | +1% TENN +1.6 pts |
| Q3 11:10 | False Start on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TENN 0.0 pts |
| Q3 5:33 | False Start on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GT +0.9 pts |
| Q3 1:21 | Holding on Georgia Tech, 10 yards | +1% TENN +0.6 pts |
| Q3 1:03 | Pass Interference on Tennessee, 15 yards | +1% GT +0.9 pts |
| Q4 12:45 | Holding on Tennessee, 10 yards | 0% GT +0.6 pts |
| Q4 8:00 | Face Mask on Tennessee, 15 yards | 0% GT +1.5 pts |
| Q4 7:02 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Tennessee, 15 yards | 0% GT +0.8 pts |
| Q4 4:43 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Tennessee, 15 yards | 0% GT +0.9 pts |
| Q4 2:32 | Pass Interference on Tennessee, 15 yards | 0% GT +1.0 pts |
| Q4 1:56 | Pass Interference on Tennessee, 15 yards, wiping out the play | 0% GT +5.0 pts |
| Q4 1:46 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Tennessee, 7 yards | 0% GT +0.8 pts |
| Q4 1:46 | Pass Interference on Tennessee, 5 yards | 0% GT +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Georgia Tech’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:14 | Georgia Tech was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +2% TENN | GT: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 12:01 | Georgia Tech converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +3% GT | GT: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 9:46 | Georgia Tech converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +3% GT | GT: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 5:49 | Return touchdown by Georgia TechSpecial teams | +8% GT | GT: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 4:57 | Tennessee converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +5% TENN | TENN: Field goal |
| 6 | Q1 2:43 | Tennessee converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +3% TENN | TENN: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 13:17 | Holding on Georgia Tech, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +4% TENN | TENN: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 11:24 | Return touchdown by TennesseeSpecial teams | +16% TENN | TENN: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tennessee 100% · Georgia Tech 0%
- Final margin
- Tennessee by 21
- Luck in points
- 2.2 for Georgia Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tennessee by 23.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Tennessee 33% · Georgia Tech 67% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Tennessee · 
Georgia Tech
More from Week 2 2026
- California at Syracuse CAL 21–18 · replay 19% for the winner
- Duke at Illinois DUKE 31–27 · replay 25% for the winner
- Ohio State at Texas TEX 24–23 · replay 32% for the winner
- Arizona State at Texas A&M TA&M 48–20 · replay 45% for the winner
- Rutgers at Boston College BC 28–21 · replay 45% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Michigan MICH 17–10 · replay 48% for the winner
- UCF at Pittsburgh PITT 12–7 · replay 58% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Clemson CLEM 22–7 · replay 64% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Purdue WAKE 38–36 · replay 65% for the winner
- Delaware at Vanderbilt VAN 35–26 · replay 74% for the winner
- Missouri at Kansas MIZ 38–21 · replay 89% for the winner
- Charlotte at Ole Miss MISS 41–9 · replay 95% for the winner