luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026

Delaware at Vanderbilt, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

Vanderbilt beat Delaware 35–26, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.

Before kickoff Vanderbilt was a 91% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:17 left): Return touchdown by Delaware, worth 12 points of win probability to Delaware.

Final

Delaware Blue Hens 26
Vanderbilt Commodores 35

September 12, 2026 · FirstBank Stadium · Closing line: Vanderbilt −20.5

Luck index +26 Vanderbilt lucky · −26 Delaware

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Delaware wins 3, Vanderbilt wins 7.

  1. 1 DEL 28 VAN 7
  2. 2 DEL 17 VAN 7
  3. 3 DEL 16 VAN 13
  4. 4 DEL 3 VAN 5
  5. 5 DEL 13 VAN 17
  6. 6 DEL 10 VAN 18
  7. 7 DEL 10 VAN 22
  8. 8 DEL 14 VAN 29
  9. 9 DEL 7 VAN 27
  10. 10 DEL 7 VAN 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Delaware wins 26% of them, Vanderbilt 74%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vanderbilt by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Delaware by 17+3.4%
Delaware by 9–167.7%
Delaware by 1–813.0%
Level after regulation2.2%
Vanderbilt by 1–824.2%
Vanderbilt by 9–1617.8%
Vanderbilt by 17+31.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +15.3 points to Delaware: the final margin was Vanderbilt by 9, without the luck Vanderbilt by 24.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • T. Smack, 37 yds made · 76% expected
  • T. Smack, 40 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Delaware 2 for 13 yards, Vanderbilt 5 for 36 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:50 Delay of Game on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEL +0.8 pts
Q1 2:53 Illegal Substitution on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEL +0.8 pts
Q2 10:35 False Start on Delaware, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% VAN +0.6 pts
Q2 6:10 Offside on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEL +0.2 pts
Q2 3:42 Pass Interference on Vanderbilt, 6 yards 0% DEL +1.0 pts
Q4 2:52 Holding on Delaware, 8 yards, wiping out the play +1% VAN +1.4 pts
Q4 1:38 Pass Interference on Vanderbilt, 15 yards +2% DEL +2.4 pts

When it happened

Vanderbilt’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Vanderbilt was ahead in it, below while Delaware was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:54 Delaware converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +2% DEL DEL: Punt
2 Q1 3:09 Vanderbilt converted 3rd & 213rd & 4th downs · 16% expected +3% VAN VAN: Touchdown
3 Q2 3:54 Delaware converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +2% DEL DEL: Touchdown
4 Q2 1:16 Vanderbilt fumbled and Delaware recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +2% DEL VAN: End of half
5 Q2 0:17 Return touchdown by DelawareSpecial teams +12% DEL DEL: Punt
6 Q3 13:29 Vanderbilt converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% VAN VAN: Touchdown
7 Q3 11:05 Vanderbilt converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +3% VAN VAN: Touchdown
8 Q3 9:30 Return touchdown by VanderbiltSpecial teams +3% VAN VAN: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Delaware 0% · Vanderbilt 100%

Final margin
Vanderbilt by 9
Luck in points
15.3 for Delaware
Luck-adjusted margin
Vanderbilt by 24.3
Replay with same day's form
Delaware 26% · Vanderbilt 74% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Delaware · Vanderbilt

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