Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
New Mexico State at Hawai'i, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Hawai'i beat New Mexico State 29–19, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Hawai'i wins 4 of 10.
Before kickoff Hawai'i was a 69% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 11:16 left): New Mexico State was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 12 points of win probability to Hawai'i.
Final
 New Mexico State Aggies | 19 |
|---|---|
 Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 29 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +56 Hawai'i lucky · −56 New Mexico State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. New Mexico State wins 6, Hawai'i wins 4.
- 1 NMSU 44 HAW 14
- 2 NMSU 38 HAW 17
- 3 NMSU 24 HAW 7
- 4 NMSU 24 HAW 13
- 5 NMSU 21 HAW 14
- 6 NMSU 27 HAW 24
- 7 NMSU 14 HAW 17
- 8 NMSU 24 HAW 31
- 9 NMSU 14 HAW 26
- 10 NMSU 21 HAW 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
New Mexico State wins 56% of them, Hawai'i 44%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Hawai'i by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| New Mexico State by 17+ | 19.0% |
| New Mexico State by 9–16 | 17.1% |
| New Mexico State by 1–8 | 18.6% |
| Level after regulation | 2.6% |
| Hawai'i by 1–8 | 20.9% |
| Hawai'i by 9–16 | 11.9% |
| Hawai'i by 17+ | 9.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Olvera-Harle, 32 yds made · 84% expected
- S. Olvera-Harle, 42 yds made · 69% expected
- S. Olvera-Harle, 33 yds made · 83% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: New Mexico State 5 for 40 yards, Hawai'i 3 for 32 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:53 | Holding on New Mexico State, 10 yards | +1% HAW +0.6 pts |
| Q1 13:04 | Personal Foul on Hawai'i, 15 yards | +7% NMSU +3.9 pts |
| Q2 10:13 | Pass Interference on Hawai'i, 4 yards | +1% NMSU +1.1 pts |
| Q2 6:45 | Holding on New Mexico State, 10 yards | +1% HAW +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:05 | Holding on New Mexico State, 5 yards | +1% HAW +0.3 pts |
| Q4 5:16 | Holding on New Mexico State, 10 yards | +3% HAW +1.5 pts |
| Q4 0:44 | Illegal Forward Pass on New Mexico State, 5 yards | 0% HAW +0.3 pts |
| Q4 0:29 | Pass Interference on Hawai'i, 13 yards | 0% NMSU +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Hawai'i’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:04 | Personal Foul on Hawai'i, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +7% NMSU | NMSU: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 12:18 | New Mexico State fumbled and Hawai'i recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% HAW | NMSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 8:50 | Hawai'i was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +4% NMSU | HAW: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 4:30 | Hawai'i was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +4% NMSU | HAW: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 1:50 | New Mexico State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% NMSU | NMSU: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 12:41 | New Mexico State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% NMSU | NMSU: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 11:16 | New Mexico State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +12% HAW | NMSU: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 6:20 | Hawai'i converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +9% HAW | HAW: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
New Mexico State 1% · Hawai'i 99%
- Final margin
- Hawai'i by 10
- Luck in points
- 5.3 for New Mexico State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Hawai'i by 15.3
- Replay with same day's form
- New Mexico State 56% · Hawai'i 44% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
New Mexico State · 
Hawai'i
More from Week 2 2026
- Illinois State at Northern Illinois ILST 28–24 · replay 17% for the winner
- North Dakota State at Air Force NDSU 38–32 · replay 19% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at Ohio OHIO 29–27 · replay 27% for the winner
- Tulsa at Sam Houston TLSA 23–17 · replay 27% for the winner
- Northern Colorado at Wyoming WYO 21–13 · replay 42% for the winner
- Middle Tennessee at Marshall MRSH 28–26 · replay 43% for the winner
- Montana State at Nevada MTST 20–7 · replay 46% for the winner
- Georgia State at Kennesaw State GAST 31–17 · replay 62% for the winner
- Gardner-Webb at Liberty LIB 24–23 · replay 63% for the winner
- Delaware at Vanderbilt VAN 35–26 · replay 74% for the winner
- Cal Poly at San José State SJSU 30–20 · replay 77% for the winner
- Buffalo at Florida International FIU 33–20 · replay 95% for the winner