Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Montana State at Nevada, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Montana State beat Nevada 20–7, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Montana State wins 5 of 10.
Before kickoff Montana State was a 61% favorite.
Final
 Montana State Bobcats | 20 |
|---|---|
 Nevada Wolf Pack | 7 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +54 Montana State lucky · −54 Nevada
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Montana State wins 5, Nevada wins 5.
- 1 MTST 34 NEV 10
- 2 MTST 23 NEV 7
- 3 MTST 41 NEV 31
- 4 MTST 30 NEV 24
- 5 MTST 16 NEV 14
- 6 MTST 10 NEV 13
- 7 MTST 21 NEV 27
- 8 MTST 10 NEV 20
- 9 MTST 17 NEV 33
- 10 MTST 7 NEV 30
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Montana State wins 46% of them, Nevada 54%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Montana State by 13.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Montana State by 17+ | 10.6% |
| Montana State by 9–16 | 14.1% |
| Montana State by 1–8 | 20.7% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Nevada by 1–8 | 22.8% |
| Nevada by 9–16 | 17.1% |
| Nevada by 17+ | 13.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Sansted, 45 yds made · 66% expected
- M. Sansted, 29 yds made · 91% expected
Penalties: Montana State 13 for 125 yards, Nevada 9 for 86 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:00 | Holding on Montana State, 10 yards | +1% NEV +0.6 pts |
| Q1 10:54 | False Start on Nevada, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MTST +0.9 pts |
| Q1 7:16 | Illegal Shift on Montana State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NEV +1.4 pts |
| Q1 5:48 | Kick Catch Interference on Montana State, 15 yards | +2% NEV +0.9 pts |
| Q1 5:11 | Holding on Nevada, 10 yards | +1% MTST +0.6 pts |
| Q1 4:07 | Face Mask on Nevada, 15 yards | +3% MTST +1.6 pts |
| Q1 3:59 | Ineligible Downfield on Montana State, 5 yards | +1% NEV +0.6 pts |
| Q2 13:12 | False Start on Nevada, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% MTST +1.5 pts |
| Q2 12:31 | Disconcerting Signals on Montana State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NEV +1.1 pts |
| Q2 9:54 | False Start on Montana State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NEV +0.5 pts |
| Q2 5:50 | Pass Interference on Nevada, 11 yards | +2% MTST +1.6 pts |
| Q2 5:09 | Personal Foul on Montana State, 15 yards | +1% NEV +1.1 pts |
| Q2 2:30 | Roughing the Passer on Nevada, 15 yards | 0% MTST +0.6 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Holding on Montana State, 10 yards | 0% NEV +0.4 pts |
| Q2 1:48 | Delay of Game on Montana State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NEV +0.2 pts |
| Q2 0:46 | Roughing the Passer on Montana State, 15 yards | +2% NEV +1.7 pts |
| Q3 2:13 | False Start on Nevada, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MTST +0.8 pts |
| Q3 1:07 | Holding on Montana State, 10 yards | 0% NEV +0.6 pts |
| Q4 14:38 | Kick Catch Interference on Montana State, 15 yards | 0% NEV +0.9 pts |
| Q4 14:38 | Holding on Montana State, 10 yards | 0% NEV +0.8 pts |
| Q4 4:49 | Chop Block on Nevada, 15 yards | +1% MTST +1.6 pts |
| Q4 0:56 | False Start on Nevada, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MTST +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Nevada’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:25 | Nevada was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +3% MTST | NEV: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 7:10 | Montana State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% MTST | MTST: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 2:55 | Montana State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +3% MTST | MTST: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 1:35 | M. Sansted made a 45-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 5 of 8 from 45+ before | +3% MTST | MTST: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 13:12 | False Start on Nevada, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +3% MTST | MTST: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 8:34 | Montana State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +4% MTST | MTST: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 2:30 | Nevada was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expectedRoughing the Passer on Nevada, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% MTST | NEV: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 4:49 | Nevada fumbled and Montana State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Chop Block on Nevada, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% MTST | NEV: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Montana State 75% · Nevada 25%
- Final margin
- Montana State by 13
- Luck in points
- 8.8 for Montana State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Montana State by 4.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Montana State 46% · Nevada 54% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Montana State · 
Nevada
More from Week 2 2026
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