Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
UC Davis at SMU, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
SMU beat UC Davis 56–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, SMU wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff SMU was a 98% favorite.
Final
 UC Davis Aggies | 10 |
|---|---|
 SMU Mustangs | 56 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 SMU about even · 0 UC Davis
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UC Davis wins 0, SMU wins 10.
- 1 UCD 17 SMU 48
- 2 UCD 0 SMU 40
- 3 UCD 10 SMU 55
- 4 UCD 3 SMU 52
- 5 UCD 6 SMU 59
- 6 UCD 3 SMU 59
- 7 UCD 3 SMU 63
- 8 UCD 0 SMU 66
- 9 UCD 0 SMU 70
- 10 UCD 0 SMU 76
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UC Davis wins 0% of them, SMU 100%. The line is what actually happened: SMU by 46.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UC Davis by 17+ | 0.0% |
| UC Davis by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| UC Davis by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| SMU by 1–8 | 0.4% |
| SMU by 9–16 | 1.0% |
| SMU by 17+ | 98.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Meyer, 42 yds missed · 69% expected
- N. Reed, 43 yds blocked · 66% expected
- R. Meyer, 33 yds made · 82% expected
Penalties: UC Davis 5 for 40 yards, SMU 1 for 5 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:43 | Delay of Game on UC Davis, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SMU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 5:13 | False Start on UC Davis, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SMU +1.7 pts |
| Q1 1:54 | Face Mask on UC Davis, 15 yards | 0% SMU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 10:24 | Holding on UC Davis, 10 yards | 0% SMU 0.0 pts |
| Q3 6:45 | Ineligible Downfield on SMU, 5 yards, wiping out the play | 0% UCD +1.2 pts |
| Q3 1:55 | False Start on UC Davis, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SMU +1.0 pts |
When it happened
SMU’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:21 | UC Davis converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +0% UCD | UCD: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:21 | UC Davis was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +0% SMU | UCD: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 8:20 | SMU converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +0% SMU | SMU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 5:13 | False Start on UC Davis, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% SMU | SMU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 3:28 | UC Davis converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +0% UCD | UCD: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q1 2:05 | UC Davis was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +0% SMU | UCD: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q1 2:01 | R. Meyer missed a 42-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him | +0% SMU | UCD: Punt |
| 8 | Q1 1:54 | Face Mask on UC Davis, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% SMU | SMU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UC Davis 0% · SMU 100%
- Final margin
- SMU by 46
- Luck in points
- 8.1 for SMU
- Luck-adjusted margin
- SMU by 37.9
- Replay with same day's form
- UC Davis 0% · SMU 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
UC Davis · 
SMU
More from Week 2 2026
- California at Syracuse CAL 21–18 · replay 19% for the winner
- Duke at Illinois DUKE 31–27 · replay 25% for the winner
- Tennessee at Georgia Tech TENN 45–24 · replay 33% for the winner
- Northern Colorado at Wyoming WYO 21–13 · replay 42% for the winner
- Rutgers at Boston College BC 28–21 · replay 45% for the winner
- Montana State at Nevada MTST 20–7 · replay 46% for the winner
- UCF at Pittsburgh PITT 12–7 · replay 58% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Clemson CLEM 22–7 · replay 64% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Purdue WAKE 38–36 · replay 65% for the winner
- Cal Poly at San José State SJSU 30–20 · replay 77% for the winner
- Southern Utah at Colorado State CSU 58–24 · replay 96% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Virginia Tech VT 44–21 · replay 96% for the winner