ACC · 2026 season, in progress
SMU Mustangs: luck and expected wins
SMU is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.3 wins. Luck cost 0.3: the 44th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–0.
2026, game by game
How often SMU wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Florida State | W 27–24 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 2 | vs UC Davis | W 56–10 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 3 | @ Louisville | L 31–41 | 31% | −31 |
| Week 4 | vs Missouri State | W 34–24 | 99% | +1 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | SMU win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | vs Boston College |  SMU by 20.9 | 91% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | vs Virginia | SMU by 0.5 | 51% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | vs California | SMU by 16.6 | 84% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | at Syracuse | SMU by 7.8 | 68% |
| Week 10 · Nov 6 | vs Virginia Tech | SMU by 8.7 | 70% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | vs Wake Forest | SMU by 7.2 | 66% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | at Notre Dame |  Notre Dame by 22.5 | 9% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | at Stanford | SMU by 12.9 | 78% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in SMU’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.29 | +15.8 |
| Kicks | −0.09 | −8.1 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.12 | −3.6 |
Luckiest wins
Wins SMU takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 10 | vs Miami | W 26–20 | 32% | +68 |
| 2025 Week 3 | @ Missouri State | W 28–10 | 46% | +54 |
| 2025 Week 8 | @ Clemson | W 35–24 | 65% | +35 |
| 2025 Week 1 | vs East Texas A&M | W 42–13 | 79% | +21 |
| 2026 Trust & Will Holiday Bowl | vs Arizona | W 24–19 | 84% | +16 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses SMU would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 14 | @ California | L 35–38 | 82% | −82 |
| 2025 Week 2 | vs Baylor | L 45–48 | 73% | −73 |
| 2026 Week 3 | @ Louisville | L 31–41 | 31% | −31 |
| 2025 Week 9 | @ Wake Forest | L 12–13 | 30% | −30 |
| 2025 Week 4 | @ TCU | L 24–35 | 26% | −26 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8–4 | 8.1 | −0.1 | 1–3 | 1–0 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs East Texas A&M | W 42–13 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 2 | vs Baylor | L 45–48 | 73% | −73 |
| Week 3 | @ Missouri State | W 28–10 | 46% | +54 |
| Week 4 | @ TCU | L 24–35 | 26% | −26 |
| Week 6 | vs Syracuse | W 31–18 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 7 | vs Stanford | W 34–10 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 8 | @ Clemson | W 35–24 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 9 | @ Wake Forest | L 12–13 | 30% | −30 |
| Week 10 | vs Miami | W 26–20 | 32% | +68 |
| Week 11 | @ Boston College | W 45–13 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 13 | vs Louisville | W 38–6 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 14 | @ California | L 35–38 | 82% | −82 |
| Trust & Will Holiday Bowl | vs Arizona | W 24–19 | 84% | +16 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- ACC teams by luck
- ACC:
Boston College, 
California, 
Clemson, 
Duke, 
Florida State, 
Georgia Tech, 
Louisville, 
Miami, 
NC State, 
North Carolina, 
Pittsburgh, 
Stanford, 
Syracuse, 
Virginia, 
Virginia Tech, 
Wake Forest
How many wins does SMU have in 2026?
3–1 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 3.3 wins.
Was SMU lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: −0.3 wins of luck, the 44th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was SMU’s luckiest season?
2025: 8–4 from play worth 8.1 wins, −0.1 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 3–1 from play worth 3.3 (−0.3).