luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025

SMU at TCU, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

TCU beat SMU 35–24, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.

Before kickoff TCU was a 66% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:54 left): TCU converted 3rd & 15, worth 12 points of win probability to TCU.

Final

SMU Mustangs 24
TCU Horned Frogs 35

September 20, 2025 · Amon G. Carter Stadium · Closing line: TCU −6.5

Luck index +26 TCU lucky · −26 SMU

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. SMU wins 3, TCU wins 7.

  1. 1 SMU 38 TCU 21
  2. 2 SMU 23 TCU 14
  3. 3 SMU 24 TCU 21
  4. 4 SMU 14 TCU 17
  5. 5 SMU 27 TCU 34
  6. 6 SMU 24 TCU 34
  7. 7 SMU 14 TCU 27
  8. 8 SMU 10 TCU 28
  9. 9 SMU 12 TCU 34
  10. 10 SMU 14 TCU 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

SMU wins 26% of them, TCU 74%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: TCU by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
SMU by 17+4.5%
SMU by 9–167.4%
SMU by 1–812.3%
Level after regulation2.0%
TCU by 1–823.3%
TCU by 9–1617.2%
TCU by 17+33.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.4 points to TCU: the final margin was TCU by 11, without the luck TCU by 2.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • S. Keltner, 28 yds made · 88% expected
  • S. Keltner, 49 yds missed · 55% expected
  • N. McCashland, 47 yds missed · 59% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: SMU 7 for 70 yards, TCU 8 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:55 False Start on SMU, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TCU +1.4 pts
Q1 11:51 False Start on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SMU +0.6 pts
Q1 11:36 False Start on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SMU +0.6 pts
Q1 7:42 Holding on SMU, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% TCU +1.9 pts
Q1 5:36 Illegal Substitution on SMU, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TCU +0.5 pts
Q1 2:50 Face Mask on SMU, 15 yards +4% TCU +2.2 pts
Q1 1:43 Holding on TCU, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% SMU +1.5 pts
Q2 13:09 Delay of Game on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SMU +1.2 pts
Q2 10:38 Holding on SMU, 10 yards +2% TCU +1.2 pts
Q2 7:21 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on SMU, 15 yards +3% SMU +1.7 pts
Q2 5:27 Holding on SMU, 10 yards +3% TCU +1.3 pts
Q3 12:21 False Start on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SMU +0.7 pts
Q3 9:38 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on TCU, 15 yards +6% SMU +4.0 pts
Q3 2:05 False Start on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SMU +0.4 pts
Q4 8:14 False Start on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SMU +0.5 pts

When it happened

TCU’s chance of winning

As low as 41% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while TCU was ahead in it, below while SMU was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:38 TCU converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +6% TCU TCU: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:56 TCU converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +6% TCU TCU: Touchdown
3 Q2 7:21 SMU converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on SMU, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% SMU SMU: Missed field goal
4 Q3 9:38 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on TCU, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% SMU SMU: Touchdown
5 Q3 1:49 N. McCashland missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before +7% SMU TCU: Punt
6 Q4 14:40 TCU converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% TCU TCU: Punt
7 Q4 9:18 TCU converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +9% TCU TCU: Touchdown
8 Q4 7:54 TCU converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +12% TCU TCU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

SMU 36% · TCU 64%

Final margin
TCU by 11
Luck in points
8.4 for TCU
Luck-adjusted margin
TCU by 2.6
Replay with same day's form
SMU 26% · TCU 74% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · SMU · TCU

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