Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
Texas Tech at Utah, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas Tech beat Utah 34–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas Tech wins 9 of 10. Utah had the bounces: pre-snap flags alone were worth 8 points of win probability to Utah.
An off day for Utah: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Texas Tech it would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers
Before kickoff Utah was a 59% favorite.
Final
 Texas Tech Red Raiders | 34 |
|---|---|
 Utah Utes | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Texas Tech about even · −13 Utah
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Texas Tech wins 9, Utah wins 1.
- 1 TTU 52 UTAH 14
- 2 TTU 36 UTAH 7
- 3 TTU 27 UTAH 3
- 4 TTU 34 UTAH 13
- 5 TTU 31 UTAH 14
- 6 TTU 24 UTAH 10
- 7 TTU 37 UTAH 27
- 8 TTU 17 UTAH 11
- 9 TTU 27 UTAH 25
- 10 TTU 17 UTAH 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Utah
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Texas Tech it would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
44 points apart for Utah: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech offenseEPA per play gained | −0.03 | +0.12 | worse by 0.15 |
| Texas Tech defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.10 | +0.10 | better by 0.20 |
| Utah offenseEPA per play gained | −0.10 | +0.05 | worse by 0.15 |
| Utah defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.03 | +0.00 | better by 0.03 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Texas Tech wins 87% of them, Utah 13%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas Tech by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Texas Tech by 17+ | 46.8% |
| Texas Tech by 9–16 | 20.2% |
| Texas Tech by 1–8 | 18.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Utah by 1–8 | 8.8% |
| Utah by 9–16 | 3.2% |
| Utah by 17+ | 1.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Harrington, 58 yds made · 42% expected
- D. Curtis, 32 yds made · 82% expected
- S. Harrington, 25 yds made · 92% expected
Penalties: Texas Tech 13 for 93 yards, Utah 3 for 10 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:24 | False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UTAH +0.9 pts |
| Q1 7:29 | False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UTAH +0.6 pts |
| Q1 5:46 | Illegal Substitution on Utah, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TTU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 4:57 | Ineligible Downfield on Utah, 5 yards | +1% TTU +0.3 pts |
| Q1 4:42 | Pass Interference on Texas Tech, 15 yards | +4% UTAH +1.6 pts |
| Q2 12:33 | Illegal Motion on Texas Tech, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTAH 0.0 pts |
| Q2 4:27 | False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UTAH +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:40 | False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UTAH +0.4 pts |
| Q2 1:21 | Holding on Texas Tech, 10 yards | +1% UTAH +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:31 | Pass Interference on Texas Tech, 14 yards | +4% UTAH +1.6 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Personal Foul on Texas Tech, 12 yards | +2% UTAH +0.7 pts |
| Q3 14:47 | False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UTAH +0.6 pts |
| Q3 13:48 | False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UTAH +0.6 pts |
| Q3 5:53 | False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UTAH +1.0 pts |
| Q4 10:50 | Pass Interference on Texas Tech, 7 yards | +4% UTAH +1.2 pts |
| Q4 2:43 | Holding on Utah, 0 yards | 0% TTU 0.0 pts |
When it happened
Utah’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:15 | Texas Tech converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +6% TTU | TTU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 10:52 | Texas Tech converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +6% TTU | TTU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 7:40 | Utah was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +7% TTU | UTAH: Turnover |
| 4 | Q1 1:18 | Utah fumbled and Texas Tech recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% TTU | UTAH: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 9:39 | Utah converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +6% UTAH | UTAH: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 0:48 | S. Harrington made a 58-yard field goalKicks · 42% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before | +6% TTU | TTU: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 10:46 | Texas Tech converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +6% TTU | TTU: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 14:53 | Texas Tech converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +8% TTU | TTU: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Texas Tech 96% · Utah 4%
- Final margin
- Texas Tech by 24
- Luck in points
- 12.5 for Texas Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas Tech by 11.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Texas Tech 87% · Utah 13% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
Texas Tech · 
Utah
More from Week 4 2025
- Arizona State at Baylor ASU 27–24 · replay 39% for the winner
- Tulsa at Oklahoma State TLSA 19–12 · replay 44% for the winner
- BYU at East Carolina BYU 34–13 · replay 66% for the winner
- SMU at TCU TCU 35–24 · replay 74% for the winner
- North Carolina at UCF UCF 34–9 · replay 91% for the winner
- Wyoming at Colorado COLO 37–20 · replay 91% for the winner
- West Virginia at Kansas KU 41–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Fresno State at Hawai'i FRES 23–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Troy at Buffalo TROY 21–17 · replay 30% for the winner
- Arkansas at Memphis MEM 32–31 · replay 30% for the winner
- Syracuse at Clemson SYR 34–21 · replay 34% for the winner
- NC State at Duke DUKE 45–33 · replay 35% for the winner