luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025

Arkansas at Memphis, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

Memphis beat Arkansas 32–31, but the replays lean toward Arkansas: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 22 points of win probability to Memphis.

Before kickoff Arkansas was a 68% favorite. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 1:18 left): Arkansas fumbled and Memphis recovered, worth 16 points of win probability to Memphis.

Final

Arkansas Razorbacks 31
Memphis Tigers 32

September 20, 2025 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Closing line: Arkansas −7

Luck index +70 Memphis very lucky · −70 Arkansas

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Arkansas wins 7, Memphis wins 3.

  1. 1 ARK 48 MEM 9
  2. 2 ARK 43 MEM 16
  3. 3 ARK 38 MEM 17
  4. 4 ARK 40 MEM 24
  5. 5 ARK 38 MEM 27
  6. 6 ARK 20 MEM 13
  7. 7 ARK 41 MEM 38
  8. 8 ARK 38 MEM 41
  9. 9 ARK 28 MEM 38
  10. 10 ARK 24 MEM 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Arkansas wins 70% of them, Memphis 30%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Memphis by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Arkansas by 17+32.4%
Arkansas by 9–1617.6%
Arkansas by 1–817.7%
Level after regulation4.7%
Memphis by 1–812.6%
Memphis by 9–167.8%
Memphis by 17+7.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.9 points to Memphis: the final margin was Memphis by 1, without the luck Arkansas by 5.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • G. Spetic, 38 yds made · 75% expected
  • G. Spetic, 46 yds missed · 61% expected
  • G. Spetic, 47 yds made · 58% expected
  • S. Starzyk, 46 yds made · 60% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Arkansas 6 for 50 yards, Memphis 4 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:32 False Start on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARK +0.7 pts
Q2 14:55 Offside on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARK +0.8 pts
Q2 11:11 Intentional Grounding on Memphis, 0 yards 0% ARK 0.0 pts
Q2 2:57 False Start on Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MEM +0.4 pts
Q2 0:59 Pass Interference on Arkansas, 15 yards 0% MEM +0.7 pts
Q3 13:22 Holding on Memphis, 10 yards +3% ARK +2.0 pts
Q3 4:16 Delay of Game on Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MEM +1.0 pts
Q3 1:40 Holding on Arkansas, 10 yards 0% MEM +1.4 pts
Q4 8:55 Holding on Arkansas, 10 yards +1% MEM +0.6 pts
Q4 2:00 Illegal Substitution on Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% MEM +0.8 pts

When it happened

Memphis’s chance of winning

As low as 5% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Memphis was ahead in it, below while Arkansas was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:37 Memphis converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +4% MEM MEM: Field goal
2 Q1 2:22 Memphis converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +5% MEM MEM: Touchdown
3 Q1 0:20 Memphis converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +3% MEM MEM: Punt
4 Q2 11:11 Memphis was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expectedIntentional Grounding on Memphis, 0 yardsJudgment calls +4% ARK MEM: Punt
5 Q4 8:20 Arkansas converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% ARK ARK: Punt
6 Q4 6:58 Arkansas was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +4% MEM ARK: Punt
7 Q4 2:00 Illegal Substitution on Arkansas, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% MEM MEM: End of game
8 Q4 1:18 The game turned hereArkansas fumbled and Memphis recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% MEM –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Arkansas 80% · Memphis 20%

Final margin
Memphis by 1
Luck in points
6.9 for Memphis
Luck-adjusted margin
Arkansas by 5.9
Replay with same day's form
Arkansas 70% · Memphis 30% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · Arkansas · Memphis

More from Week 4 2025

Every week 4 game, 2025