Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
Auburn at Oklahoma, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
Oklahoma beat Auburn 24–17, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10.
Before kickoff Oklahoma was a 66% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:12 left): Pass Interference on Oklahoma, 15 yards, worth 21 points of win probability to Auburn.
Final
 Auburn Tigers | 17 |
|---|---|
 Oklahoma Sooners | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +40 Oklahoma lucky · −40 Auburn
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Auburn wins 4, Oklahoma wins 6.
- 1 AUB 34 OU 14
- 2 AUB 14 OU 3
- 3 AUB 16 OU 10
- 4 AUB 16 OU 14
- 5 AUB 7 OU 10
- 6 AUB 16 OU 21
- 7 AUB 15 OU 23
- 8 AUB 3 OU 15
- 9 AUB 10 OU 26
- 10 AUB 0 OU 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Auburn wins 40% of them, Oklahoma 60%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Oklahoma by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Auburn by 17+ | 7.0% |
| Auburn by 9–16 | 11.0% |
| Auburn by 1–8 | 18.5% |
| Level after regulation | 3.4% |
| Oklahoma by 1–8 | 22.3% |
| Oklahoma by 9–16 | 18.4% |
| Oklahoma by 17+ | 19.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Sandell, 49 yds made · 56% expected
- A. McPherson, 24 yds made · 95% expected
- T. Sandell, 32 yds made · 85% expected
- C. Gibbs, 50 yds missed · 54% expected
- T. Sandell, 28 yds made · 89% expected
Penalties: Auburn 13 for 85 yards, Oklahoma 8 for 89 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:54 | Holding on Auburn, 10 yards | +4% OU +2.2 pts |
| Q1 9:54 | False Start on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% AUB +0.5 pts |
| Q1 8:27 | Illegal Block on Auburn, 7 yards | +1% OU +0.4 pts |
| Q1 6:10 | Face Mask on Oklahoma, 10 yards | +1% AUB +0.3 pts |
| Q2 14:56 | Delay of Game on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% AUB +1.0 pts |
| Q2 13:48 | False Start on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% OU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 13:48 | False Start on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% OU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 13:40 | Horse Collar Tackle on Oklahoma, 15 yards | +4% AUB +1.6 pts |
| Q2 13:17 | Holding on Auburn, 10 yards | +3% OU +1.2 pts |
| Q2 12:13 | Delay of Game on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% OU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 11:29 | Holding on Oklahoma, 10 yards | +1% AUB +0.8 pts |
| Q2 3:21 | False Start on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% OU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:18 | Pass Interference on Oklahoma, 14 yards | +7% AUB +3.0 pts |
| Q2 0:06 | Pass Interference on Oklahoma, 15 yards | 0% AUB +0.6 pts |
| Q3 6:39 | Delay of Game on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% OU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 3:48 | False Start on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% OU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 7:36 | False Start on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% OU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 7:12 | Pass Interference on Oklahoma, 15 yards | +21% AUB +4.3 pts |
| Q4 4:54 | Illegal Block on Auburn, 8 yards | +2% OU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 2:30 | Holding on Auburn, 10 yards | +2% OU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 2:17 | False Start on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% AUB +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Oklahoma’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:34 | Auburn converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +5% AUB | AUB: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 14:56 | Oklahoma was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expectedDelay of Game on Oklahoma, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% AUB | OU: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 1:18 | Pass Interference on Oklahoma, 14 yardsJudgment calls | +7% AUB | AUB: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 11:58 | Oklahoma converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +8% OU | OU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 7:16 | Auburn was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +5% OU | AUB: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 3:05 | C. Gibbs missed a 50-yard field goalKicks · 54% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +7% OU | AUB: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 9:16 | Auburn converted 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +15% AUB | AUB: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 7:12 | Pass Interference on Oklahoma, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +21% AUB | AUB: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Auburn 35% · Oklahoma 65%
- Final margin
- Oklahoma by 7
- Luck in points
- 4.6 for Oklahoma
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oklahoma by 2.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Auburn 40% · Oklahoma 60% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
Auburn · 
Oklahoma
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