Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
Northern Illinois at Mississippi State, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
Mississippi State beat Northern Illinois 38–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Mississippi State wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Mississippi State was a 94% favorite.
Final
 Northern Illinois Huskies | 10 |
|---|---|
 Mississippi State Bulldogs | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Mississippi State about even · −12 Northern Illinois
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Northern Illinois wins 1, Mississippi State wins 9.
- 1 NIU 26 MSST 21
- 2 NIU 17 MSST 20
- 3 NIU 14 MSST 20
- 4 NIU 21 MSST 31
- 5 NIU 21 MSST 34
- 6 NIU 20 MSST 34
- 7 NIU 10 MSST 28
- 8 NIU 14 MSST 35
- 9 NIU 9 MSST 34
- 10 NIU 10 MSST 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Northern Illinois wins 12% of them, Mississippi State 88%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Mississippi State by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Northern Illinois by 17+ | 1.3% |
| Northern Illinois by 9–16 | 3.2% |
| Northern Illinois by 1–8 | 7.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.4% |
| Mississippi State by 1–8 | 20.5% |
| Mississippi State by 9–16 | 19.7% |
| Mississippi State by 17+ | 46.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. Glass, 30 yds made · 86% expected
- K. Ferrie, 48 yds made · 59% expected
Penalties: Northern Illinois 5 for 50 yards, Mississippi State 8 for 75 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:26 | False Start on Northern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MSST +0.9 pts |
| Q1 0:25 | Delay of Game on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NIU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 14:01 | Illegal Formation on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NIU +1.3 pts |
| Q2 12:38 | Pass Interference on Northern Illinois, 15 yards | +1% MSST +0.6 pts |
| Q2 3:47 | Holding on Northern Illinois, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% MSST +1.7 pts |
| Q3 14:53 | Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards | +2% NIU +1.8 pts |
| Q3 12:17 | Holding on Northern Illinois, 10 yards | 0% MSST +0.6 pts |
| Q3 11:17 | Face Mask on Mississippi State, 15 yards | +1% NIU +2.1 pts |
| Q3 5:53 | Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% NIU +2.3 pts |
| Q3 1:52 | Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% NIU +1.9 pts |
| Q3 0:00 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Mississippi State, 15 yards | +1% NIU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 5:42 | False Start on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NIU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 4:22 | Holding on Northern Illinois, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% MSST +1.3 pts |
When it happened
Mississippi State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:37 | Mississippi State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +2% MSST | MSST: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 14:01 | Illegal Formation on Mississippi State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +2% NIU | NIU: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 13:31 | Mississippi State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +1% NIU | MSST: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 12:59 | Mississippi State converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +4% MSST | MSST: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 3:47 | Holding on Northern Illinois, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +2% MSST | MSST: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 1:58 | Blocked punt by Mississippi StateSpecial teams | +1% MSST | MSST: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 14:53 | Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +2% NIU | NIU: Turnover |
| 8 | Q3 11:17 | Face Mask on Mississippi State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% NIU | NIU: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Northern Illinois 0% · Mississippi State 100%
- Final margin
- Mississippi State by 28
- Luck in points
- 6.5 for Mississippi State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Mississippi State by 21.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Northern Illinois 12% · Mississippi State 88% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
Northern Illinois · 
Mississippi State
More from Week 4 2025
- Troy at Buffalo TROY 21–17 · replay 30% for the winner
- Arkansas at Memphis MEM 32–31 · replay 30% for the winner
- Ball State at UConn CONN 31–25 · replay 37% for the winner
- Louisiana at Eastern Michigan EMU 34–31 · replay 42% for the winner
- UNLV at Miami (OH) UNLV 41–38 · replay 50% for the winner
- Auburn at Oklahoma OU 24–17 · replay 60% for the winner
- Toledo at Western Michigan WMU 14–13 · replay 71% for the winner
- South Carolina at Missouri MIZ 29–20 · replay 92% for the winner
- Gardner-Webb at Ohio OHIO 52–35 · replay 95% for the winner
- Florida at Miami MIA 26–7 · replay 98% for the winner
- Tulane at Ole Miss MISS 45–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Louisville LOU 40–17 · replay 99% for the winner