luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025

Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 51 of the 79 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

UNLV at Miami (OH), Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

UNLV beat Miami (OH) 41–38, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, UNLV wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 36 points of win probability to UNLV.

Before kickoff UNLV was a 56% favorite. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 6:13 left): UNLV converted 3rd & 8, worth 45 points of win probability to UNLV.

Final

UNLV Rebels 41
Miami (OH) RedHawks 38

September 20, 2025 · Yager Stadium · Closing line: UNLV −2.5

Luck index +50 UNLV lucky · −50 Miami (OH)

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. UNLV wins 5, Miami (OH) wins 5.

  1. 1 UNLV 42 M-OH 17
  2. 2 UNLV 37 M-OH 21
  3. 3 UNLV 20 M-OH 10
  4. 4 UNLV 30 M-OH 24
  5. 5 UNLV 31 M-OH 28
  6. 6 UNLV 21 M-OH 24
  7. 7 UNLV 28 M-OH 34
  8. 8 UNLV 24 M-OH 35
  9. 9 UNLV 14 M-OH 31
  10. 10 UNLV 3 M-OH 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

UNLV wins 50% of them, Miami (OH) 50%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UNLV by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
UNLV by 17+13.3%
UNLV by 9–1617.0%
UNLV by 1–819.7%
Level after regulation2.1%
Miami (OH) by 1–824.0%
Miami (OH) by 9–1612.4%
Miami (OH) by 17+11.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.4 points to UNLV: the final margin was UNLV by 3, without the luck Miami (OH) by 2.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • R. Villela, 27 yds made · 88% expected
  • D. Dzioban, 40 yds made · 76% expected
  • R. Villela, 23 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: UNLV 6 for 35 yards, Miami (OH) 7 for 79 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:56 Offside on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% M-OH +1.1 pts
Q1 14:37 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Miami (OH), 15 yards +3% UNLV +1.6 pts
Q1 12:54 False Start on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UNLV +0.7 pts
Q1 12:54 Offside on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% M-OH +0.7 pts
Q1 12:54 False Start on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UNLV +0.7 pts
Q1 7:26 Offside on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% M-OH +1.0 pts
Q1 2:09 Personal Foul on Miami (OH), 15 yards +3% UNLV +1.6 pts
Q2 14:13 Holding on Miami (OH), 10 yards +2% UNLV +1.0 pts
Q2 14:13 Offside on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% M-OH +1.0 pts
Q2 3:47 Personal Foul on Miami (OH), 15 yards +4% UNLV +1.6 pts
Q2 2:51 Holding on UNLV, 10 yards +2% M-OH +0.9 pts
Q2 1:15 Offside on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% M-OH +1.3 pts
Q3 15:00 Pass Interference on Miami (OH), 14 yards +5% UNLV +2.5 pts

When it happened

Miami (OH)’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Miami (OH) was ahead in it, below while UNLV was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:49 UNLV converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +4% UNLV UNLV: Turnover
2 Q2 10:41 Return touchdown by UNLVSpecial teams +15% UNLV UNLV: Turnover on downs
3 Q2 8:10 Miami (OH) converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% M-OH M-OH: Field goal
4 Q3 15:00 Pass Interference on Miami (OH), 14 yardsJudgment calls +5% UNLV UNLV: Touchdown
5 Q4 10:52 UNLV converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +13% UNLV UNLV: Touchdown
6 Q4 6:13 The game turned hereUNLV converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedUNLV converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedUNLV converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedUNLV converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +45% UNLV UNLV: End of game
7 Q4 2:32 Miami (OH) fumbled and UNLV recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +14% UNLV M-OH: Turnover
8 Q4 2:00 UNLV converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +14% UNLV UNLV: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

UNLV 34% · Miami (OH) 66%

Final margin
UNLV by 3
Luck in points
5.4 for UNLV
Luck-adjusted margin
Miami (OH) by 2.4
Replay with same day's form
UNLV 50% · Miami (OH) 50% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 51 of the 79 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · UNLV · Miami (OH)

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