Mountain West · 2026 season, in progress

UNLV Rebels: luck and expected wins

UNLV is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.8 wins. Luck added 0.2: the 61st-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.

2026, game by game

How often UNLV wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Memphis	L 21–27	16%	−16
Week 1	@ Hawai'i	W 21–6	95%	+5
Week 2	@ North Texas	L 6–44	1%	−1
Week 4	@ Akron	W 38–10	71%	+29

Wk 1 −16 vs MEM

Wk 1 +5 @ HAW

Wk 2 −1 @ UNT

Wk 4 +29 @ AKR

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	UNLV win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs California	UNLV by 6.9	67%
Week 6 · Oct 10	vs North Dakota State	North Dakota State by 3.9	41%
Week 7 · Oct 17	at Air Force	UNLV by 0.6	52%
Week 9 · Oct 31	vs Northern Illinois	UNLV by 18.1	86%
Week 10 · Nov 7	vs Wyoming	UNLV by 16.2	83%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at New Mexico	New Mexico by 9.9	28%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at San José State	UNLV by 7.5	67%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs Nevada	UNLV by 11.3	75%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in UNLV’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.09	−0.7
Fumble bounces	−0.10	−1.9
3rd & 4th downs	−0.23	−3.3

Luckiest wins

Wins UNLV takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 6	@ Wyoming	W 31–17	25%	+75
2025 Week 4	@ Miami (OH)	W 41–38	50%	+50
2025 Week 7	vs Air Force	W 51–48	62%	+38
2025 Week 2	vs UCLA	W 30–23	64%	+36
2025 Week 12	vs Utah State	W 29–26	68%	+32

Unluckiest losses

Losses UNLV would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 10	vs New Mexico	L 35–40	30%	−30
2025 Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl	vs Ohio	L 10–17	20%	−20
2026 Week 1	vs Memphis	L 21–27	16%	−16
2025 Week 15	@ Boise State	L 21–38	13%	−13
2025 Week 8	@ Boise State	L 31–56	5%	−5

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	10–3	7.8	+2.2	5–1	0–1

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Idaho State	W 38–31	69%	+31
Week 1	vs Sam Houston	W 38–21	99%	+1
Week 2	vs UCLA	W 30–23	64%	+36
Week 4	@ Miami (OH)	W 41–38	50%	+50
Week 6	@ Wyoming	W 31–17	25%	+75
Week 7	vs Air Force	W 51–48	62%	+38
Week 8	@ Boise State	L 31–56	5%	−5
Week 10	vs New Mexico	L 35–40	30%	−30
Week 11	@ Colorado State	W 42–10	100%	0
Week 12	vs Utah State	W 29–26	68%	+32
Week 13	vs Hawai'i	W 38–10	99%	+1
Week 14	@ Nevada	W 42–17	98%	+2
Week 15	@ Boise State	L 21–38	13%	−13
Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl	vs Ohio	L 10–17	20%	−20