Week 15 2025 · December 5, 2025
UNLV at Boise State, Week 15 2025: who deserved to win?
Boise State beat UNLV 38–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Boise State wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Boise State was a 65% favorite.
Final
 UNLV Rebels | 21 |
|---|---|
 Boise State Broncos | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Boise State about even · −13 UNLV
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UNLV wins 1, Boise State wins 9.
- 1 UNLV 24 BOIS 17
- 2 UNLV 27 BOIS 30
- 3 UNLV 24 BOIS 31
- 4 UNLV 24 BOIS 34
- 5 UNLV 10 BOIS 24
- 6 UNLV 20 BOIS 38
- 7 UNLV 14 BOIS 35
- 8 UNLV 10 BOIS 36
- 9 UNLV 10 BOIS 40
- 10 UNLV 10 BOIS 48
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UNLV wins 13% of them, Boise State 87%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Boise State by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UNLV by 17+ | 1.8% |
| UNLV by 9–16 | 3.5% |
| UNLV by 1–8 | 7.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Boise State by 1–8 | 17.6% |
| Boise State by 9–16 | 18.3% |
| Boise State by 17+ | 51.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Villela, 50 yds missed · 54% expected
- C. Boomer, 50 yds made · 53% expected
Penalties: UNLV 9 for 70 yards, Boise State 3 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:08 | False Start on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BOIS +1.3 pts |
| Q1 9:57 | False Start on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BOIS +1.0 pts |
| Q1 6:29 | False Start on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BOIS +0.8 pts |
| Q2 8:40 | Holding on UNLV, 10 yards | 0% BOIS +0.6 pts |
| Q2 7:56 | Pass Interference on UNLV, 10 yards | 0% BOIS +1.2 pts |
| Q3 10:46 | False Start on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BOIS +0.7 pts |
| Q3 7:21 | Personal Foul on UNLV, 15 yards | +1% BOIS +1.6 pts |
| Q3 6:24 | False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNLV +0.8 pts |
| Q3 1:35 | False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNLV +0.7 pts |
| Q4 7:35 | False Start on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BOIS +0.3 pts |
| Q4 7:18 | Holding on Boise State, 10 yards | 0% UNLV +0.6 pts |
| Q4 5:11 | Illegal Use of Hands on UNLV, 10 yards | 0% BOIS +1.3 pts |
When it happened
Boise State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:08 | False Start on UNLV, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +2% BOIS | BOIS: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:12 | Boise State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +3% UNLV | BOIS: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 8:03 | Boise State converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 19% expected | +6% BOIS | BOIS: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 2:35 | R. Villela missed a 50-yard field goalKicks · 54% expected for him, 2 of 3 from 45+ before | +4% BOIS | UNLV: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 0:18 | Boise State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +3% BOIS | BOIS: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 11:43 | Boise State was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +3% UNLV | BOIS: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 3:49 | UNLV converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +5% UNLV | UNLV: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 14:06 | Boise State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +2% BOIS | BOIS: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UNLV 15% · Boise State 85%
- Final margin
- Boise State by 17
- Luck in points
- 10.2 for Boise State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Boise State by 6.8
- Replay with same day's form
- UNLV 13% · Boise State 87% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2025 games · 
UNLV · 
Boise State
More from Week 15 2025
- Duke vs Virginia DUKE 27–20 · replay 14% for the winner
- North Texas at Tulane TULN 34–21 · replay 18% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State KENN 19–15 · replay 39% for the winner
- Indiana vs Ohio State IU 13–10 · replay 68% for the winner
- Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan WMU 23–13 · replay 74% for the winner
- Georgia vs Alabama UGA 28–7 · replay 82% for the winner
- BYU vs Texas Tech TTU 34–7 · replay 84% for the winner
- Troy at James Madison JMU 31–14 · replay 98% for the winner