luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 15 2025 · December 6, 2025

Duke vs Virginia, Week 15 2025: who deserved to win?

Duke beat Virginia 27–20, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, Virginia wins 9 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Duke.

Before kickoff Virginia was a 59% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 14:16 left): Duke converted 3rd & 14, worth 16 points of win probability to Duke.

Final (OT)

Duke Blue Devils 27
Virginia Cavaliers 20

December 6, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Virginia −3.5

Luck index +86 Duke very lucky · −86 Virginia

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Duke wins 1, Virginia wins 9.

  1. 1 DUKE 23 UVA 16
  2. 2 DUKE 10 UVA 13
  3. 3 DUKE 17 UVA 23
  4. 4 DUKE 17 UVA 27
  5. 5 DUKE 7 UVA 20
  6. 6 DUKE 14 UVA 30
  7. 7 DUKE 7 UVA 26
  8. 8 DUKE 7 UVA 30
  9. 9 DUKE 0 UVA 27
  10. 10 DUKE 0 UVA 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Duke wins 14% of them, Virginia 86%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Duke by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Duke by 17+1.1%
Duke by 9–163.5%
Duke by 1–87.6%
Level after regulation2.9%
Virginia by 1–819.2%
Virginia by 9–1622.5%
Virginia by 17+43.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.2 points to Duke: the final margin was Duke by 7, without the luck Virginia by 3.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • W. Bettridge, 45 yds missed · 65% expected
  • W. Bettridge, 24 yds made · 93% expected
  • T. Pelino, 29 yds made · 88% expected
  • T. Pelino, 23 yds made · 93% expected
  • W. Bettridge, 42 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Duke 8 for 72 yards, Virginia 5 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:40 Ineligible Downfield on Duke, 6 yards +1% UVA +1.3 pts
Q1 10:40 Offside on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DUKE +0.9 pts
Q1 5:22 Face Mask on Duke, 15 yards, wiping out the play +7% UVA +3.0 pts
Q1 5:22 False Start on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DUKE +0.7 pts
Q1 0:47 False Start on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DUKE +0.7 pts
Q2 15:00 Offside on Duke, 4 yards · pre-snap +2% UVA +0.8 pts
Q2 6:14 Holding on Virginia, 10 yards +4% DUKE +1.4 pts
Q3 7:19 Face Mask on Virginia, 15 yards +5% DUKE +1.6 pts
Q3 7:19 False Start on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% UVA +0.8 pts
Q3 3:56 False Start on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UVA +0.3 pts
Q4 5:02 Pass Interference on Duke, 15 yards +4% UVA +1.4 pts
Q4 1:44 Holding on Duke, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% DUKE +0.3 pts
Q4 1:44 Pass Interference on Duke, 12 yards +1% UVA +0.4 pts

When it happened

Virginia’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Virginia was ahead in it, below while Duke was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:40 Duke was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 18% expectedDuke converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expectedDuke converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedDuke converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedIneligible Downfield on Duke, 6 yardsJudgment callsOffside on Virginia, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +11% DUKE DUKE: Touchdown
2 Q1 5:22 Virginia converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedVirginia was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedFace Mask on Duke, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsFalse Start on Virginia, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% UVA UVA: Missed field goal
3 Q1 1:31 W. Bettridge missed a 45-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 7 of 12 from 45+ before +6% DUKE UVA: Touchdown
4 Q2 14:16 Duke was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expectedDuke converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expectedDuke was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedDuke converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expectedDuke converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 18% expectedDuke fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% DUKE DUKE: Touchdown
5 Q2 1:50 Virginia was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +4% DUKE UVA: Punt
6 Q3 15:00 Virginia converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expectedVirginia converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedVirginia converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedVirginia was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +4% UVA UVA: Field goal
7 Q4 15:00 Virginia was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% DUKE UVA: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 14:24 Virginia was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedDuke converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedDuke was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedDuke fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% DUKE UVA: Turnover

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Duke 31% · Virginia 69%

Final margin
Duke by 7
Luck in points
10.2 for Duke
Luck-adjusted margin
Virginia by 3.2
Replay with same day's form
Duke 14% · Virginia 86% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2025 games · Duke · Virginia

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