Week 15 2025 · December 6, 2025
Georgia vs Alabama, Week 15 2025: who deserved to win?
Georgia beat Alabama 28–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Georgia wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Georgia was a 54% favorite.
Final
 Georgia Bulldogs | 28 |
|---|---|
 Alabama Crimson Tide | 7 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +19 Georgia about even · −19 Alabama
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Georgia wins 8, Alabama wins 2.
- 1 UGA 48 ALA 20
- 2 UGA 26 ALA 3
- 3 UGA 28 ALA 10
- 4 UGA 24 ALA 10
- 5 UGA 19 ALA 7
- 6 UGA 18 ALA 10
- 7 UGA 12 ALA 7
- 8 UGA 6 ALA 3
- 9 UGA 20 ALA 23
- 10 UGA 7 ALA 18
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Georgia wins 81% of them, Alabama 19%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Georgia by 21.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Georgia by 17+ | 33.5% |
| Georgia by 9–16 | 23.5% |
| Georgia by 1–8 | 23.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.1% |
| Alabama by 1–8 | 12.2% |
| Alabama by 9–16 | 4.8% |
| Alabama by 17+ | 1.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Georgia 7 for 80 yards, Alabama 1 for 5 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:43 | Holding on Georgia, 10 yards | +1% ALA +0.3 pts |
| Q1 1:27 | Face Mask on Georgia, 15 yards | +2% ALA +0.9 pts |
| Q2 9:47 | False Start on Georgia, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ALA +0.7 pts |
| Q3 9:15 | False Start on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UGA +0.5 pts |
| Q3 6:52 | Personal Foul on Georgia, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +1% ALA +3.4 pts |
| Q3 2:34 | False Start on Georgia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ALA +0.5 pts |
| Q4 14:26 | Personal Foul on Georgia, 15 yards | +1% ALA +1.6 pts |
| Q4 12:56 | Pass Interference on Georgia, 15 yards | +1% ALA +3.0 pts |
When it happened
Alabama’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:18 | Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +3% UGA | ALA: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 9:01 | Georgia was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +2% UGA | UGA: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 6:41 | Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +2% UGA | ALA: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 3:02 | Alabama converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +3% ALA | ALA: Turnover |
| 5 | Q1 1:27 | Face Mask on Georgia, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% ALA | ALA: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 11:40 | Georgia converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +2% UGA | UGA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 8:43 | Georgia converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +4% UGA | UGA: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 4:06 | Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +2% UGA | ALA: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Georgia 100% · Alabama 0%
- Final margin
- Georgia by 21
- Luck in points
- 6.0 for Georgia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Georgia by 15.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Georgia 81% · Alabama 19% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2025 games · 
Georgia · 
Alabama
More from Week 15 2025
- Duke vs Virginia DUKE 27–20 · replay 14% for the winner
- North Texas at Tulane TULN 34–21 · replay 18% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State KENN 19–15 · replay 39% for the winner
- Indiana vs Ohio State IU 13–10 · replay 68% for the winner
- Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan WMU 23–13 · replay 74% for the winner
- BYU vs Texas Tech TTU 34–7 · replay 84% for the winner
- UNLV at Boise State BOIS 38–21 · replay 87% for the winner
- Troy at James Madison JMU 31–14 · replay 98% for the winner