SEC · 2026 season, in progress

Alabama Crimson Tide: luck and expected wins

Alabama is 4–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 48th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.

2026, game by game

How often Alabama wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs East Carolina	W 48–10	99%	+1
Week 2	@ Kentucky	W 45–17	99%	+1
Week 3	vs Florida State	W 50–36	77%	+23
Week 4	vs South Carolina	W 49–18	96%	+4

Wk 1 +1 vs ECU

Wk 2 +1 @ UK

Wk 3 +23 vs FSU

Wk 4 +4 vs SC

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Alabama win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	at Mississippi State	Alabama by 7.5	68%
Week 6 · Oct 10	vs Georgia	Alabama by 3.4	58%
Week 7 · Oct 17	at Tennessee	Alabama by 4.6	61%
Week 8 · Oct 24	vs Texas A&M	Alabama by 13.7	80%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at LSU	Alabama by 1.2	53%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at Vanderbilt	Alabama by 12.9	78%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs Chattanooga	Alabama by 49.6	100%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs Auburn	Alabama by 17.3	85%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Alabama’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	+0.07	+20.1
Kicks	+0.03	+7.8
Pre-snap flags	−0.07	+6.8

Luckiest wins

Wins Alabama takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 CFP first round	@ Oklahoma	W 34–24	18%	+82
2025 Week 7	@ Missouri	W 27–24	30%	+70
2025 Week 9	@ South Carolina	W 29–22	38%	+62
2025 Week 14	@ Auburn	W 27–20	41%	+59
2025 Week 5	@ Georgia	W 24–21	54%	+46

Unluckiest losses

Losses Alabama would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 12	vs Oklahoma	L 21–23	88%	−88
2025 Week 15	vs Georgia	L 7–28	19%	−19
2025 Week 1	@ Florida State	L 17–31	8%	−8
2026 CFP quarterfinal, Rose Bowl	vs Indiana	L 3–38	0%	0

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	10–3	8.3	+1.7	4–1	1–1

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Florida State	L 17–31	8%	−8
Week 2	vs UL Monroe	W 73–0	100%	0
Week 3	vs Wisconsin	W 38–14	96%	+4
Week 5	@ Georgia	W 24–21	54%	+46
Week 6	vs Vanderbilt	W 30–14	89%	+11
Week 7	@ Missouri	W 27–24	30%	+70
Week 8	vs Tennessee	W 37–20	75%	+25
Week 9	@ South Carolina	W 29–22	38%	+62
Week 11	vs LSU	W 20–9	91%	+9
Week 12	vs Oklahoma	L 21–23	88%	−88
Week 13	vs Eastern Illinois	W 56–0	100%	0
Week 14	@ Auburn	W 27–20	41%	+59
Week 15	vs Georgia	L 7–28	19%	−19
CFP first round	@ Oklahoma	W 34–24	18%	+82
CFP quarterfinal, Rose Bowl	vs Indiana	L 3–38	0%	0