Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
UL Monroe at Alabama, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Alabama beat UL Monroe 73–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Alabama wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Alabama was a 99% favorite.
Final
 UL Monroe Warhawks | 0 |
|---|---|
 Alabama Crimson Tide | 73 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Alabama about even · 0 UL Monroe
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UL Monroe wins 0, Alabama wins 10.
- 1 ULM 3 ALA 30
- 2 ULM 7 ALA 42
- 3 ULM 10 ALA 48
- 4 ULM 7 ALA 48
- 5 ULM 10 ALA 55
- 6 ULM 0 ALA 48
- 7 ULM 6 ALA 56
- 8 ULM 0 ALA 52
- 9 ULM 0 ALA 56
- 10 ULM 0 ALA 63
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UL Monroe wins 0% of them, Alabama 100%. The line is what actually happened: Alabama by 73.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UL Monroe by 17+ | 0.0% |
| UL Monroe by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| UL Monroe by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Alabama by 1–8 | 0.3% |
| Alabama by 9–16 | 1.3% |
| Alabama by 17+ | 98.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
Penalties: UL Monroe 2 for 11 yards, Alabama 4 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:19 | False Start on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ULM +0.7 pts |
| Q1 2:30 | Illegal Shift on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ULM +0.7 pts |
| Q2 9:14 | Holding on UL Monroe, 6 yards | 0% ALA +0.4 pts |
| Q2 3:10 | Pass Interference on Alabama, 15 yards, wiping out the play | 0% ULM +5.2 pts |
| Q2 0:39 | Holding on Alabama, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% ULM +4.8 pts |
| Q4 1:53 | Holding on Alabama, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% ULM +1.4 pts |
When it happened
Alabama’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:19 | False Start on Alabama, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% ULM | ULM: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 10:43 | UL Monroe was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +0% ALA | ULM: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 9:04 | Alabama converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +0% ALA | ALA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 6:29 | UL Monroe converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +0% ALA | ULM: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 4:29 | Alabama converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +0% ALA | ALA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 2:30 | Illegal Shift on UL Monroe, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% ULM | ALA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q1 1:22 | UL Monroe was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 19% expected | +0% ALA | ULM: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 8:23 | UL Monroe converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +0% ALA | ULM: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UL Monroe 0% · Alabama 100%
- Final margin
- Alabama by 73
- Luck in points
- 10.1 for Alabama
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Alabama by 62.9
- Replay with same day's form
- UL Monroe 0% · Alabama 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
UL Monroe · 
Alabama
More from Week 2 2025
- Tulane at South Alabama TULN 33–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Arizona State at Mississippi State MSST 24–20 · replay 47% for the winner
- Texas State at UTSA TXST 43–36 · replay 47% for the winner
- South Florida at Florida USF 18–16 · replay 56% for the winner
- Memphis at Georgia State MEM 38–16 · replay 64% for the winner
- South Carolina State at South Carolina SC 38–10 · replay 68% for the winner
- Kansas at Missouri MIZ 42–31 · replay 72% for the winner
- Missouri State at Marshall MOST 21–20 · replay 76% for the winner
- James Madison at Louisville LOU 28–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Kentucky MISS 30–23 · replay 78% for the winner
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