Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Kansas at Missouri, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Missouri beat Kansas 42–31, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. Kansas had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 12 points of win probability to Kansas.
Before kickoff Missouri was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:53 left): Return touchdown by Kansas, worth 22 points of win probability to Kansas.
Final
 Kansas Jayhawks | 31 |
|---|---|
 Missouri Tigers | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +28 Missouri lucky · −28 Kansas
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kansas wins 3, Missouri wins 7.
- 1 KU 38 MIZ 21
- 2 KU 24 MIZ 16
- 3 KU 16 MIZ 13
- 4 KU 21 MIZ 24
- 5 KU 28 MIZ 33
- 6 KU 20 MIZ 28
- 7 KU 19 MIZ 30
- 8 KU 21 MIZ 35
- 9 KU 0 MIZ 20
- 10 KU 17 MIZ 44
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Kansas wins 28% of them, Missouri 72%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Missouri by 11.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kansas by 17+ | 5.3% |
| Kansas by 9–16 | 7.0% |
| Kansas by 1–8 | 14.8% |
| Level after regulation | 4.1% |
| Missouri by 1–8 | 22.5% |
| Missouri by 9–16 | 19.6% |
| Missouri by 17+ | 26.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Meyer, 25 yds made · 91% expected
- R. Meyer, 20 yds made · 94% expected
- L. Marjan, 26 yds made · 91% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Kansas 1 for 5 yards, Missouri 5 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 0:13 | False Start on Missouri, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 8:39 | Penalty on Missouri, 15 yards | +9% KU +2.9 pts |
| Q3 1:56 | Offside on Kansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% MIZ +0.9 pts |
| Q4 12:45 | Delay of Game on Missouri, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% KU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 8:50 | Offside on Missouri, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% KU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 1:06 | Penalty on Missouri, 15 yards | 0% KU +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Missouri’s chance of winning
As low as 28% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:53 | Missouri fumbled and Kansas recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by KansasSpecial teams | +22% KU | MIZ: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 3:49 | Kansas converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +6% KU | KU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 3:40 | Missouri converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +8% MIZ | MIZ: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 10:17 | Missouri was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +9% KU | MIZ: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 8:39 | Penalty on Missouri, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +9% KU | KU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 0:24 | Missouri converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +9% MIZ | MIZ: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 5:37 | Missouri converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +19% MIZ | MIZ: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 4:14 | Missouri converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 81% expected | +7% MIZ | MIZ: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kansas 3% · Missouri 97%
- Final margin
- Missouri by 11
- Luck in points
- 2.4 for Kansas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Missouri by 13.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Kansas 28% · Missouri 72% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Kansas · 
Missouri
More from Week 2 2025
- Army at Kansas State ARMY 24–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Baylor at SMU BAY 48–45 · replay 27% for the winner
- Arizona State at Mississippi State MSST 24–20 · replay 47% for the winner
- Iowa at Iowa State ISU 16–13 · replay 52% for the winner
- South Florida at Florida USF 18–16 · replay 56% for the winner
- South Carolina State at South Carolina SC 38–10 · replay 68% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Kentucky MISS 30–23 · replay 78% for the winner
- Michigan at Oklahoma OU 24–13 · replay 84% for the winner
- Houston at Rice HOU 35–9 · replay 85% for the winner
- San José State at Texas TEX 38–7 · replay 86% for the winner
- Delaware at Colorado COLO 31–7 · replay 88% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Cincinnati CIN 34–20 · replay 88% for the winner