luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025

South Carolina State at South Carolina, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

South Carolina beat South Carolina State 38–10, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.

Before kickoff South Carolina was a 100% favorite.

Final

South Carolina State Bulldogs 10
South Carolina Gamecocks 38

September 6, 2025 · Williams-Brice Stadium · Closing line: South Carolina −42.5

Luck index +32 South Carolina lucky · −32 South Carolina State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. South Carolina State wins 3, South Carolina wins 7.

  1. 1 SCST 17 SC 3
  2. 2 SCST 13 SC 6
  3. 3 SCST 24 SC 21
  4. 4 SCST 7 SC 10
  5. 5 SCST 10 SC 14
  6. 6 SCST 7 SC 14
  7. 7 SCST 9 SC 20
  8. 8 SCST 0 SC 14
  9. 9 SCST 10 SC 28
  10. 10 SCST 7 SC 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

South Carolina State wins 32% of them, South Carolina 68%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: South Carolina by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
South Carolina State by 17+2.6%
South Carolina State by 9–168.6%
South Carolina State by 1–815.8%
Level after regulation6.1%
South Carolina by 1–826.6%
South Carolina by 9–1621.4%
South Carolina by 17+19.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 points to South Carolina: the final margin was South Carolina by 28, without the luck South Carolina by 26.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • N. Cavanillas Alti, 21 yds made · 93% expected
  • W. Joyce, 45 yds missed · 63% expected
  • W. Joyce, 49 yds made · 55% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: South Carolina State 5 for 50 yards, South Carolina 6 for 43 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:12 False Start on South Carolina State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SC +0.6 pts
Q1 6:25 False Start on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SC +1.0 pts
Q1 4:09 Unnecessary Roughness on South Carolina, 15 yards 0% SCST +1.6 pts
Q1 1:17 Holding on South Carolina, 10 yards 0% SCST +0.6 pts
Q1 0:25 Illegal Snap on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SCST +0.7 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on South Carolina, 3 yards · pre-snap 0% SCST +0.3 pts
Q2 4:48 Holding on South Carolina State, 10 yards 0% SC +0.9 pts
Q3 13:25 Pass Interference on South Carolina State, 15 yards 0% SC +0.7 pts
Q3 7:50 Delay of Game on South Carolina State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SC +0.9 pts
Q4 10:44 Pass Interference on South Carolina State, 15 yards 0% SC +1.3 pts
Q4 9:31 False Start on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SCST +0.4 pts

When it happened

South Carolina’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while South Carolina was ahead in it, below while South Carolina State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:58 South Carolina State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +0% SCST SCST: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 4:09 Unnecessary Roughness on South Carolina, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% SCST SCST: Field goal
3 Q1 1:33 South Carolina State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +0% SC SCST: Field goal
4 Q1 1:32 N. Cavanillas Alti made a 21-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him +0% SC SCST: Punt
5 Q2 14:37 South Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +0% SCST SC: Punt
6 Q2 7:48 South Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +0% SCST SC: Missed field goal
7 Q2 5:01 Return touchdown by South CarolinaSpecial teams +1% SC SC: Field goal
8 Q2 3:07 Return touchdown by South CarolinaSpecial teams +0% SC SC: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

South Carolina State 0% · South Carolina 100%

Final margin
South Carolina by 28
Luck in points
1.8 for South Carolina
Luck-adjusted margin
South Carolina by 26.2
Replay with same day's form
South Carolina State 32% · South Carolina 68% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · South Carolina State · South Carolina

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