luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025

Vanderbilt at Virginia Tech, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

Vanderbilt beat Virginia Tech 44–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Vanderbilt wins 10 of 10. Virginia Tech had the bounces: pre-snap flags alone were worth 15 points of win probability to Virginia Tech.

An off day for Virginia Tech: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Vanderbilt it would win 39% of the time; with this day’s form, 0%. The numbers

Before kickoff Virginia Tech was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:39 left): Vanderbilt converted 3rd & 9, worth 9 points of win probability to Vanderbilt.

Final

Vanderbilt Commodores 44
Virginia Tech Hokies 20

September 6, 2025 · Lane Stadium · Closing line: Virginia Tech −2.5

Luck index 0 Vanderbilt about even · 0 Virginia Tech

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vanderbilt wins 10, Virginia Tech wins 0.

  1. 1 VAN 55 VT 3
  2. 2 VAN 52 VT 7
  3. 3 VAN 47 VT 6
  4. 4 VAN 49 VT 14
  5. 5 VAN 42 VT 10
  6. 6 VAN 44 VT 14
  7. 7 VAN 36 VT 10
  8. 8 VAN 36 VT 13
  9. 9 VAN 28 VT 10
  10. 10 VAN 21 VT 10

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for Virginia Tech

Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Vanderbilt it would win 39% of the time; with this day’s form, 0%.

38 points apart for Virginia Tech: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Vanderbilt offenseEPA per play gained +0.83 +0.06 better by 0.77
Vanderbilt defenseEPA per play allowed −0.01 +0.14 better by 0.15
Virginia Tech offenseEPA per play gained −0.01 +0.06 worse by 0.07
Virginia Tech defenseEPA per play allowed +0.83 +0.05 worse by 0.78

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vanderbilt wins 100% of them, Virginia Tech 0%. The line is what actually happened: Vanderbilt by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vanderbilt by 17+90.6%
Vanderbilt by 9–165.9%
Vanderbilt by 1–83.0%
Level after regulation0.1%
Virginia Tech by 1–80.3%
Virginia Tech by 9–160.1%
Virginia Tech by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.5 points to Virginia Tech: the final margin was Vanderbilt by 24, without the luck Vanderbilt by 24.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Love, 28 yds made · 94% expected
  • B. Taylor, 29 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Love, 27 yds made · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vanderbilt 11 for 77 yards, Virginia Tech 4 for 36 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:00 Offside on Vanderbilt, 3 yards · pre-snap +1% VT +0.7 pts
Q2 13:53 Ineligible Downfield on Vanderbilt, 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% VT +1.7 pts
Q2 9:37 Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yards +2% VT +0.9 pts
Q2 1:01 Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yards +2% VT +0.8 pts
Q3 10:45 False Start on Vanderbilt, 4 yards · pre-snap +3% VT +1.3 pts
Q3 4:22 Ineligible Downfield on Vanderbilt, 5 yards +4% VT +1.0 pts
Q3 3:55 Delay of Game on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% VT +0.6 pts
Q3 2:41 Roughing the Passer on Virginia Tech, 15 yards +6% VAN +1.6 pts
Q3 1:39 Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yards +6% VT +1.4 pts
Q3 0:24 False Start on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap +8% VT +2.1 pts
Q3 0:21 False Start on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% VAN +0.7 pts
Q4 10:06 Pass Interference on Vanderbilt, 15 yards +3% VT +1.2 pts
Q4 4:33 Penalty on Virginia Tech, 6 yards 0% VAN 0.0 pts
Q4 4:16 Ineligible Downfield on Vanderbilt, 5 yards 0% VT +0.5 pts
Q4 1:31 Holding on Virginia Tech, 10 yards 0% VAN +0.4 pts

When it happened

Virginia Tech’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Virginia Tech was ahead in it, below while Vanderbilt was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:50 Vanderbilt converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +5% VAN VAN: End of half
2 Q2 13:53 Ineligible Downfield on Vanderbilt, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% VT VT: Touchdown
3 Q2 13:25 Vanderbilt fumbled and Virginia Tech recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% VT VAN: Field goal
4 Q3 6:32 Virginia Tech was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +6% VAN VT: Punt
5 Q3 2:41 Roughing the Passer on Virginia Tech, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% VAN VAN: Touchdown
6 Q3 1:39 Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yardsJudgment calls +6% VT VT: Punt
7 Q3 0:24 Vanderbilt converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedVanderbilt missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the timeFalse Start on Vanderbilt, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% VT VAN: Touchdown
8 Q4 13:39 Vanderbilt converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +9% VAN VAN: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vanderbilt 100% · Virginia Tech 0%

Final margin
Vanderbilt by 24
Luck in points
0.5 for Virginia Tech
Luck-adjusted margin
Vanderbilt by 24.5
Replay with same day's form
Vanderbilt 100% · Virginia Tech 0% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · Vanderbilt · Virginia Tech

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