luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025

Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 40 of the 47 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

UConn at Syracuse, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

Syracuse beat UConn 27–20, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. UConn had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 12 points of win probability to UConn.

Before kickoff Syracuse was a 69% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:48 left): Syracuse’s two-point try was good, worth 17 points of win probability to Syracuse.

Final

UConn Huskies 20
Syracuse Orange 27

September 6, 2025 · JMA Wireless Dome · Closing line: Syracuse −7.5

Luck index +34 Syracuse lucky · −34 UConn

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. UConn wins 3, Syracuse wins 7.

  1. 1 CONN 30 SYR 10
  2. 2 CONN 38 SYR 27
  3. 3 CONN 17 SYR 13
  4. 4 CONN 19 SYR 21
  5. 5 CONN 14 SYR 20
  6. 6 CONN 24 SYR 33
  7. 7 CONN 26 SYR 38
  8. 8 CONN 10 SYR 27
  9. 9 CONN 21 SYR 44
  10. 10 CONN 14 SYR 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

UConn wins 34% of them, Syracuse 66%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Syracuse by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
UConn by 17+7.7%
UConn by 9–169.8%
UConn by 1–814.8%
Level after regulation4.0%
Syracuse by 1–821.6%
Syracuse by 9–1617.0%
Syracuse by 17+25.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.0 points to UConn: the final margin was Syracuse by 7, without the luck Syracuse by 12. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • T. Woody, 38 yds made · 76% expected
  • T. Woody, 32 yds made · 85% expected
  • C. Freeman, 35 yds made · 80% expected
  • T. Woody, 48 yds missed · 58% expected
  • C. Freeman, 41 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: UConn 4 for 32 yards, Syracuse 3 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:57 Delay of Game on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CONN +1.0 pts
Q1 2:55 False Start on UConn, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SYR +0.6 pts
Q2 6:52 False Start on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CONN +0.7 pts
Q3 14:57 Illegal Block on UConn, 10 yards +2% SYR +0.6 pts
Q3 8:03 Personal Foul on UConn, 7 yards +3% SYR +1.3 pts
Q3 3:07 Holding on UConn, 10 yards +2% SYR +1.0 pts
Q4 3:19 Offside on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CONN +1.0 pts

When it happened

Syracuse’s chance of winning

As low as 3% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Syracuse was ahead in it, below while UConn was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:38 Syracuse was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +4% CONN SYR: Punt
2 Q2 9:05 Syracuse fumbled and UConn recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CONN SYR: Punt
3 Q2 4:32 UConn was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +10% SYR CONN: Touchdown
4 Q4 12:24 Syracuse was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +5% CONN SYR: Missed field goal
5 Q4 11:49 T. Woody missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 58% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before +6% CONN SYR: Turnover
6 Q4 0:48 Syracuse’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +17% SYR SYR: End of game
7 Q4 0:23 UConn converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +11% CONN CONN: Field goal
8 Q4 0:01 C. Freeman made a 41-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him +5% CONN –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

UConn 4% · Syracuse 96%

Final margin
Syracuse by 7
Luck in points
5.0 for UConn
Luck-adjusted margin
Syracuse by 12.0
Replay with same day's form
UConn 34% · Syracuse 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 40 of the 47 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · UConn · Syracuse

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