Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
North Carolina at Charlotte, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
North Carolina beat Charlotte 20–3, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff North Carolina was an 86% favorite.
Final
 North Carolina Tar Heels | 20 |
|---|---|
 Charlotte 49ers | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 North Carolina about even · −24 Charlotte
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. North Carolina wins 8, Charlotte wins 2.
- 1 UNC 33 CLT 0
- 2 UNC 25 CLT 0
- 3 UNC 26 CLT 6
- 4 UNC 37 CLT 21
- 5 UNC 28 CLT 16
- 6 UNC 23 CLT 13
- 7 UNC 13 CLT 7
- 8 UNC 16 CLT 13
- 9 UNC 6 CLT 10
- 10 UNC 10 CLT 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
North Carolina wins 76% of them, Charlotte 24%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: North Carolina by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| North Carolina by 17+ | 31.4% |
| North Carolina by 9–16 | 21.3% |
| North Carolina by 1–8 | 19.9% |
| Level after regulation | 4.6% |
| Charlotte by 1–8 | 13.4% |
| Charlotte by 9–16 | 6.2% |
| Charlotte by 17+ | 3.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Verhoff, 49 yds made · 56% expected
- L. Boyd, 39 yds made · 75% expected
- L. Boyd, 26 yds missed · 91% expected
- R. Verhoff, 33 yds made · 84% expected
Penalties: North Carolina 5 for 55 yards, Charlotte 3 for 33 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 14:51 | Personal Foul on North Carolina, 15 yards | +1% CLT +1.6 pts |
| Q2 10:07 | Personal Foul on North Carolina, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +2% CLT +2.2 pts |
| Q2 0:19 | Personal Foul on Charlotte, 13 yards | +1% UNC +1.0 pts |
| Q3 12:14 | Personal Foul on North Carolina, 15 yards | +1% CLT +1.6 pts |
| Q3 8:49 | False Start on North Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CLT +0.4 pts |
| Q4 9:15 | Personal Foul on Charlotte, 15 yards | 0% UNC +1.1 pts |
| Q4 5:30 | Holding on Charlotte, 5 yards | 0% UNC +0.3 pts |
| Q4 3:35 | Illegal Substitution on North Carolina, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% CLT +3.6 pts |
When it happened
Charlotte’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:50 | North Carolina converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +1% UNC | UNC: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 8:34 | R. Verhoff made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 56% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +1% UNC | UNC: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 5:20 | North Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +1% CLT | UNC: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q1 3:17 | North Carolina converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +1% CLT | UNC: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 14:51 | Personal Foul on North Carolina, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% CLT | CLT: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 10:07 | Personal Foul on North Carolina, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +2% CLT | CLT: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q2 6:44 | Charlotte converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +3% CLT | CLT: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q3 12:14 | Personal Foul on North Carolina, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% CLT | CLT: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
North Carolina 99% · Charlotte 1%
- Final margin
- North Carolina by 17
- Luck in points
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- North Carolina by 17.0
- Replay with same day's form
- North Carolina 76% · Charlotte 24% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
North Carolina · 
Charlotte
More from Week 2 2025
- Boston College at Michigan State MSU 42–40 · replay 8% for the winner
- Tulane at South Alabama TULN 33–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Army at Kansas State ARMY 24–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Tulsa at New Mexico State NMSU 21–14 · replay 24% for the winner
- Baylor at SMU BAY 48–45 · replay 27% for the winner
- Texas State at UTSA TXST 43–36 · replay 47% for the winner
- Illinois at Duke ILL 45–19 · replay 47% for the winner
- South Florida at Florida USF 18–16 · replay 56% for the winner
- Memphis at Georgia State MEM 38–16 · replay 64% for the winner
- UConn at Syracuse SYR 27–20 · replay 66% for the winner
- James Madison at Louisville LOU 28–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- UAB at Navy NAVY 38–24 · replay 79% for the winner