American · 2026 season, in progress

Charlotte 49ers: luck and expected wins

Charlotte is 0–4 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.1 wins. Luck cost 1.1: the 9th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–2.

2026, game by game

How often Charlotte wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs The Citadel	L 41–43	77%	−77
Week 2	@ Ole Miss	L 9–41	5%	−5
Week 3	@ App State	L 21–26	17%	−17
Week 4	vs Louisiana	L 7–34	10%	−10

Wk 1 −77 vs CIT

Wk 2 −5 @ MISS

Wk 3 −17 @ APP

Wk 4 −10 vs UL

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Charlotte win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs Memphis	Memphis by 20.3	10%
Week 6 · Oct 10	at North Texas	North Texas by 32.3	2%
Week 7 · Oct 17	at Temple	Temple by 20.8	10%
Week 9 · Oct 30	vs Tulane	Tulane by 17.7	14%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at UAB	UAB by 14.0	20%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs East Carolina	East Carolina by 16.9	16%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at Tulsa	Tulsa by 18.6	14%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs Navy	Navy by 14.3	20%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Charlotte’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Fumble bounces	+0.03	−3.0
3rd & 4th downs	−0.11	−10.8
Pre-snap flags	−0.17	−10.9

Luckiest wins

Wins Charlotte takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 3	vs Monmouth	W 42–35	86%	+14

Unluckiest losses

Losses Charlotte would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 1	vs The Citadel	L 41–43	77%	−77
2025 Week 2	vs North Carolina	L 3–20	24%	−24
2026 Week 3	@ App State	L 21–26	17%	−17
2025 Week 4	vs Rice	L 17–28	13%	−13
2026 Week 4	vs Louisiana	L 7–34	10%	−10

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	1–11	1.4	−0.4	1–0	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs App State	L 11–34	0%	0
Week 2	vs North Carolina	L 3–20	24%	−24
Week 3	vs Monmouth	W 42–35	86%	+14
Week 4	vs Rice	L 17–28	13%	−13
Week 6	@ South Florida	L 26–54	0%	0
Week 7	@ Army	L 7–24	0%	0
Week 8	vs Temple	L 14–49	4%	−4
Week 9	vs North Texas	L 20–54	2%	−2
Week 11	@ East Carolina	L 22–48	9%	−9
Week 12	vs UTSA	L 7–28	2%	−2
Week 13	@ Georgia	L 3–35	0%	0
Week 14	@ Tulane	L 0–27	0%	0