Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
Charlotte at App State, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
App State beat Charlotte 26–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, App State wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff App State was an 86% favorite.
Final
 Charlotte 49ers | 21 |
|---|---|
 App State Mountaineers | 26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 App State about even · −17 Charlotte
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Charlotte wins 2, App State wins 8.
- 1 CLT 26 APP 13
- 2 CLT 20 APP 17
- 3 CLT 21 APP 24
- 4 CLT 21 APP 27
- 5 CLT 20 APP 30
- 6 CLT 3 APP 16
- 7 CLT 18 APP 34
- 8 CLT 17 APP 38
- 9 CLT 14 APP 41
- 10 CLT 6 APP 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Charlotte wins 17% of them, App State 83%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: App State by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Charlotte by 17+ | 2.5% |
| Charlotte by 9–16 | 4.9% |
| Charlotte by 1–8 | 9.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.4% |
| App State by 1–8 | 17.2% |
| App State by 9–16 | 18.5% |
| App State by 17+ | 46.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. London, 41 yds made · 72% expected
- J. London, 47 yds made · 61% expected
Penalties: Charlotte 9 for 54 yards, App State 11 for 108 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:35 | False Start on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% APP +1.2 pts |
| Q1 6:25 | Face Mask on App State, 15 yards | +2% CLT +1.6 pts |
| Q1 5:10 | Unnecessary Roughness on App State, 13 yards | +2% CLT +1.5 pts |
| Q1 4:01 | False Start on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% APP +1.0 pts |
| Q1 2:53 | Holding on App State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% CLT +6.3 pts |
| Q1 2:30 | Ineligible Downfield on App State, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +6% CLT +4.8 pts |
| Q1 1:49 | Offside on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% APP 0.0 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Holding on App State, 10 yards | +2% CLT +2.0 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% APP +0.6 pts |
| Q2 11:26 | False Start on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CLT +1.1 pts |
| Q2 4:20 | Face Mask on App State, 15 yards | +1% CLT +1.6 pts |
| Q2 2:40 | False Start on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CLT +0.7 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Illegal Block on Charlotte, 10 yards | +1% APP +0.6 pts |
| Q3 11:39 | Holding on App State, 10 yards | +1% CLT +1.5 pts |
| Q3 7:44 | Illegal Formation on Charlotte, 1 yard · pre-snap | +1% APP +0.6 pts |
| Q3 5:01 | Illegal Substitution on Charlotte, 3 yards · pre-snap | 0% APP +0.2 pts |
| Q3 4:27 | Holding on Charlotte, 10 yards | 0% APP 0.0 pts |
| Q4 4:29 | False Start on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CLT +0.5 pts |
| Q4 3:22 | Pass Interference on App State, 15 yards | 0% CLT +0.9 pts |
| Q4 3:15 | Pass Interference on Charlotte, 10 yards | +1% APP +1.5 pts |
When it happened
App State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:45 | Charlotte fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% CLT | CLT: End of half |
| 2 | Q1 6:25 | Face Mask on App State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% CLT | CLT: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 5:10 | Unnecessary Roughness on App State, 13 yardsJudgment calls | +2% CLT | CLT: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q1 2:53 | Charlotte was stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedHolding on App State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% CLT | CLT: End of half |
| 5 | Q1 2:30 | Ineligible Downfield on App State, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% CLT | CLT: End of half |
| 6 | Q2 11:26 | Charlotte was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedApp State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedApp State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expectedApp State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedFalse Start on App State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% APP | CLT: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 0:49 | Charlotte converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +2% CLT | CLT: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 12:32 | App State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +3% APP | APP: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Charlotte 68% · App State 32%
- Final margin
- App State by 5
- Luck in points
- 8.1 for App State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Charlotte by 3.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Charlotte 17% · App State 83% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Charlotte · 
App State
More from Week 3 2026
- Marshall at Missouri State MRSH 30–24 · replay 22% for the winner
- SE Louisiana at UL Monroe SELA 38–35 · replay 28% for the winner
- Florida International at Florida Atlantic FAU 16–10 · replay 31% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Rice WMU 28–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- James Madison at San Diego State JMU 26–13 · replay 40% for the winner
- East Carolina at Old Dominion ECU 20–17 · replay 54% for the winner
- Ohio at South Alabama USA 41–36 · replay 62% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Jacksonville State JXST 31–27 · replay 67% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at Delaware DEL 22–14 · replay 72% for the winner
- UAB at Louisiana UL 21–14 · replay 74% for the winner
- Georgia State at UCF UCF 44–30 · replay 78% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Baylor BAY 36–19 · replay 83% for the winner