luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

Georgia State at UCF, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

UCF beat Georgia State 44–30, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.

Before kickoff UCF was an 87% favorite.

Final

Georgia State Panthers 30
UCF Knights 44

September 19, 2026 · FBC Mortgage Stadium · Closing line: UCF −17.5

Luck index +22 UCF about even · −22 Georgia State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Georgia State wins 2, UCF wins 8.

  1. 1 GAST 35 UCF 20
  2. 2 GAST 28 UCF 24
  3. 3 GAST 28 UCF 31
  4. 4 GAST 20 UCF 26
  5. 5 GAST 10 UCF 20
  6. 6 GAST 14 UCF 27
  7. 7 GAST 10 UCF 27
  8. 8 GAST 28 UCF 47
  9. 9 GAST 17 UCF 42
  10. 10 GAST 0 UCF 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Georgia State wins 22% of them, UCF 78%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UCF by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Georgia State by 17+3.7%
Georgia State by 9–166.6%
Georgia State by 1–810.9%
Level after regulation2.1%
UCF by 1–821.3%
UCF by 9–1618.0%
UCF by 17+37.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.9 points to Georgia State: the final margin was UCF by 14, without the luck UCF by 17.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • W. Stone, 29 yds made · 88% expected
  • W. Stone, 40 yds made · 73% expected
  • S. Layous, 22 yds made · 94% expected
  • S. Layous, 35 yds made · 81% expected
  • W. Stone, 24 yds made · 92% expected
  • S. Layous, 49 yds made · 57% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Georgia State 7 for 85 yards, UCF 7 for 48 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:58 Holding on UCF, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% GAST +6.7 pts
Q1 12:13 Pass Interference on Georgia State, 15 yards +3% UCF +3.5 pts
Q1 10:27 False Start on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UCF +1.2 pts
Q1 0:15 Delay of Game on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GAST +0.6 pts
Q2 10:59 Pass Interference on UCF, 1 yard +2% GAST +1.7 pts
Q2 10:08 Delay of Game on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UCF +0.9 pts
Q2 5:09 False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GAST +0.5 pts
Q2 4:51 Face Mask on Georgia State, 15 yards +3% UCF +1.6 pts
Q3 12:46 Pass Interference on UCF, 15 yards +4% GAST +1.9 pts
Q3 11:18 Offside on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UCF +0.3 pts
Q3 7:27 Holding on UCF, 7 yards +1% GAST +0.4 pts
Q4 7:14 Kick Catch Interference on Georgia State, 15 yards 0% UCF +0.9 pts
Q4 1:52 Illegal Touching on Georgia State, 25 yards +1% UCF +1.5 pts
Q4 1:35 False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GAST +1.3 pts

When it happened

UCF’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while UCF was ahead in it, below while Georgia State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:58 Holding on UCF, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% GAST GAST: Punt
2 Q1 12:13 Pass Interference on Georgia State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +3% UCF UCF: Touchdown
3 Q2 4:51 Face Mask on Georgia State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +3% UCF UCF: Field goal
4 Q3 12:46 Pass Interference on UCF, 15 yardsJudgment calls +4% GAST GAST: Field goal
5 Q3 11:28 Georgia State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +3% UCF GAST: Field goal
6 Q3 10:30 UCF was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +4% GAST UCF: Punt
7 Q3 9:33 Georgia State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +4% GAST GAST: Punt
8 Q3 3:30 UCF converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +3% UCF UCF: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Georgia State 0% · UCF 100%

Final margin
UCF by 14
Luck in points
3.9 for Georgia State
Luck-adjusted margin
UCF by 17.9
Replay with same day's form
Georgia State 22% · UCF 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Georgia State · UCF

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